Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (13 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 16
Defender wins (French): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 1007 | 47% | 2026-04-09 | Won |
| 1212 | 1005 | 77% | 2025-08-24 | Won |
| 1283 | 1220 | 59% | 2024-06-14 | Lost |
| 1099 | 943 | 71% | 2024-04-01 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1070 | 52% | 2022-08-04 | Lost |
| 1102 | 904 | 76% | 2021-05-03 | Won |
| 748 | 1131 | 10% | 2020-10-27 | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1229 | 1002 | 79% | 2020-05-03 | Won |
| 1030 | 1213 | 26% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
| 961 | 884 | 61% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1106.1 vs 1036.1 has a 59.94% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).