Liberation Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 76 (25 on the archive and 51 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 36
Defender wins (German): 40
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 920 | 796 | 67% | 2024-06-13 | Won |
| 1193 | 1184 | 51% | 2024-04-18 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1205 | 32% | 2024-04-08 | Lost |
| 1055 | 952 | 64% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1055 | 952 | 64% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1019 | 57% | 2023-04-05 | Won |
| 1043 | 1009 | 55% | 2022-03-31 | Won |
| 1087 | 1139 | 43% | 2022-01-05 | Won |
| 1004 | 946 | 58% | 2020-11-06 | Won |
| 1100 | 938 | 72% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-06-28 | Won |
| 1140 | 1100 | 56% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 1140 | 1100 | 56% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 1062 | 1038 | 53% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 1062 | 1038 | 53% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 937 | 1091 | 29% | 2018-05-22 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1094 | 50% | 2018-02-03 | Lost |
| 1148 | 917 | 79% | 2015-10-07 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1138 | 35% | 2015-09-05 | Lost |
| 917 | 1205 | 16% | 2015-08-24 | Won |
| 1310 | 1189 | 67% | 2015-08-23 | Lost |
| 913 | 1287 | 10% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1184 | 56% | 2015-03-14 | Won |
| 1070 | 1049 | 53% | 2015-01-17 | Lost |
| 1181 | 965 | 78% | 2015-01-15 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1076.6 vs 1064.9 has a 51.68% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).