Wintergewitter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 361 (53 on the archive and 308 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 180
Defender wins (Russian): 180
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 979 | 1004 | 46% | 2026-01-07 | Lost |
| 1004 | 979 | 54% | 2026-01-02 | Won |
| 1212 | 1186 | 54% | 2025-01-27 | Won |
| 1186 | 1186 | 50% | 2025-01-27 | Won |
| 1057 | 1159 | 36% | 2025-01-26 | Won |
| 1099 | 943 | 71% | 2023-09-06 | Lost |
| 948 | 748 | 76% | 2021-12-14 | Won |
| 748 | 1131 | 10% | 2021-04-21 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1032 | 55% | 2021-02-02 | Lost |
| 985 | 955 | 54% | 2020-09-24 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1186 | 61% | 2020-09-15 | Won |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2020-06-21 | Won |
| 1035 | 1083 | 43% | 2019-05-17 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 953 | 1263 | 14% | 2017-01-21 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1229 | 21% | 2016-12-18 | Won |
| 901 | 1178 | 17% | 2016-12-10 | Won |
| 1023 | 964 | 58% | 2016-08-27 | Won |
| 982 | 1128 | 30% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 1026 | 1115 | 37% | 2014-11-08 | Lost |
| 1245 | 1042 | 76% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 890 | 942 | 43% | 2014-08-18 | Won |
| 1029 | 939 | 63% | 2013-10-11 | Won |
| 1071 | 951 | 67% | 2013-08-27 | Won |
| 1343 | 1038 | 85% | 2012-11-10 | Won |
| 1005 | 1030 | 46% | 2012-10-27 | Won |
| 1096 | 1085 | 52% | 2012-10-26 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1014 | 50% | 2011-08-27 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1125 | 37% | 2010-12-28 | Won |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2009-12-05 | Won |
| 1152 | 1125 | 54% | 2009-10-04 | Won |
| 1149 | 1269 | 33% | 2006-09-09 | Won |
| 1149 | 1000 | 70% | 2006-08-18 | Won |
| 1430 | 902 | 95% | 2006-06-16 | Won |
| 1176 | 1071 | 65% | 2006-04-15 | Won |
| 1287 | 1224 | 59% | 2006-02-26 | Lost |
| 1212 | 1071 | 69% | 2005-08-14 | Won |
| 1071 | 1071 | 50% | 2005-08-04 | Won |
| 1096 | 1018 | 61% | 2004-12-14 | Won |
| 997 | 1018 | 47% | 2004-12-14 | Won |
| 1002 | 1073 | 40% | 2004-02-09 | Won |
| 969 | 959 | 51% | 2003-11-11 | Won |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2002-06-22 | Lost |
| 908 | 1018 | 35% | 2001-12-29 | Won |
| 1060 | 1070 | 49% | 2001-04-18 | Won |
| 1070 | 1060 | 51% | 2001-03-31 | Won |
| 1070 | 1060 | 51% | 2001-02-19 | Won |
| 1154 | 1014 | 69% | 2000-03-19 | Won |
| 987 | 1060 | 40% | 2000-01-22 | Won |
| 1060 | 1234 | 27% | 1999-10-30 | Won |
| 1052 | 1263 | 23% | 1998-04-25 | Lost |
| 982 | 1159 | 27% | 1996-07-28 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Won |
Attacking (40 wins) average ELOs: 1064.2 vs 1070.2 has a 49.14% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).