Wintergewitter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 328 (29 on the archive and 299 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 186
Defender wins (Russian): 141
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
993 | 1026 | 45% | 2023-09-06 | Lost |
924 | 1204 | 17% | 2021-12-14 | Won |
1204 | 1144 | 59% | 2021-04-21 | Lost |
982 | 938 | 56% | 2020-09-24 | Lost |
1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2020-06-21 | Won |
1037 | 1109 | 40% | 2019-05-17 | Won |
1131 | 1131 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
1010 | 1160 | 30% | 2016-12-18 | Won |
997 | 997 | 50% | 2016-12-10 | Won |
1026 | 979 | 57% | 2016-08-27 | Won |
975 | 989 | 48% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
1245 | 1037 | 77% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
887 | 942 | 42% | 2014-08-18 | Won |
1063 | 939 | 67% | 2013-10-11 | Won |
1068 | 952 | 66% | 2013-08-27 | Won |
1003 | 994 | 51% | 2012-10-27 | Won |
1098 | 1062 | 55% | 2012-10-26 | Lost |
1029 | 1125 | 37% | 2010-12-28 | Won |
1037 | 1027 | 51% | 2009-12-05 | Won |
1157 | 1125 | 55% | 2009-10-04 | Won |
1360 | 901 | 93% | 2006-06-16 | Won |
1287 | 1307 | 47% | 2006-02-26 | Lost |
925 | 904 | 53% | 2005-08-14 | Won |
1096 | 992 | 65% | 2004-12-14 | Won |
997 | 992 | 51% | 2004-12-14 | Won |
1002 | 1072 | 40% | 2004-02-09 | Won |
1087 | 1008 | 61% | 2003-11-11 | Won |
912 | 992 | 39% | 2001-12-29 | Won |
958 | 1133 | 27% | 1996-07-28 | Lost |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1052.7 vs 1042 has a 51.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).