Wintergewitter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 333 (33 on the archive and 300 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 188
Defender wins (Russian): 144
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1025 | 1009 | 52% | 2023-09-06 | Lost |
| 955 | 917 | 55% | 2021-12-14 | Won |
| 917 | 1205 | 16% | 2021-04-21 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1034 | 52% | 2021-02-02 | Lost |
| 984 | 945 | 56% | 2020-09-24 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2020-06-21 | Won |
| 1034 | 1114 | 39% | 2019-05-17 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 965 | 1181 | 22% | 2016-12-18 | Won |
| 946 | 1071 | 33% | 2016-12-10 | Won |
| 1026 | 979 | 57% | 2016-08-27 | Won |
| 977 | 1022 | 44% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 1245 | 1077 | 72% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 889 | 942 | 42% | 2014-08-18 | Won |
| 1063 | 927 | 69% | 2013-10-11 | Won |
| 1067 | 951 | 66% | 2013-08-27 | Won |
| 1003 | 958 | 56% | 2012-10-27 | Won |
| 1098 | 1056 | 56% | 2012-10-26 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1100 | 50% | 2011-08-27 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1125 | 37% | 2010-12-28 | Won |
| 1037 | 1027 | 51% | 2009-12-05 | Won |
| 1149 | 1125 | 53% | 2009-10-04 | Won |
| 1400 | 901 | 95% | 2006-06-16 | Won |
| 1285 | 1310 | 46% | 2006-02-26 | Lost |
| 1148 | 994 | 71% | 2005-08-14 | Won |
| 996 | 1019 | 47% | 2004-12-14 | Won |
| 1098 | 1019 | 61% | 2004-12-14 | Won |
| 1002 | 1072 | 40% | 2004-02-09 | Won |
| 1087 | 1009 | 61% | 2003-11-11 | Won |
| 911 | 1019 | 35% | 2001-12-29 | Won |
| 1154 | 1100 | 58% | 2000-03-19 | Won |
| 959 | 1138 | 26% | 1996-07-28 | Lost |
| 1160 | 1138 | 53% | | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1057 vs 1048.8 has a 51.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).