Acts of Defiance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 36
Attacker wins (German): 17
Defender wins (Russian): 17
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2024-06-30 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1310 | 20% | 2024-03-22 | Lost |
| 933 | 1147 | 23% | 2024-01-29 | Lost |
| 1148 | 948 | 76% | 2023-01-02 | Won |
| 1218 | 1007 | 77% | 2022-10-21 | Won |
| 1056 | 1101 | 44% | 2022-10-18 | Won |
| 1204 | 1017 | 75% | 2022-06-28 | Won |
| 1204 | 1118 | 62% | 2022-06-28 | Won |
| 934 | 885 | 57% | 2021-09-02 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1032 | 46% | 2021-07-14 | Won |
| 953 | 937 | 52% | 2021-03-09 | Won |
| 841 | 1017 | 27% | 2020-05-17 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1140 | 35% | 2019-06-13 | Lost |
| 881 | 948 | 40% | 2018-12-31 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1310 | 28% | 2018-05-05 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1062 | 47% | 2018-02-17 | Won |
| 1019 | 1138 | 34% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1140 | 961 | 74% | 2017-07-20 | Won |
| 1094 | 1049 | 56% | 2017-06-27 | Lost |
| 914 | 897 | 52% | 2017-06-20 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1030 | 60% | 2017-05-29 | Lost |
| 1018 | 948 | 60% | 2016-10-08 | Lost |
| 1045 | 938 | 65% | 2016-09-17 | Won |
| 1087 | 1117 | 46% | 2015-07-19 | Tied |
| 1022 | 968 | 58% | 2014-10-07 | Won |
| 1067 | 917 | 70% | 2012-05-12 | Won |
| 1045 | 938 | 65% | 2011-06-11 | Won |
| 1022 | 989 | 55% | 2009-10-24 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1017 | 48% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
| 1175 | 1400 | 21% | 2007-09-08 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1023 | 84% | 2006-02-12 | Won |
| 965 | 986 | 47% | 2005-05-14 | Lost |
| 1045 | 938 | 65% | 2003-10-03 | Won |
| 1054 | 1063 | 49% | 2002-01-01 | Won |
| 966 | 948 | 53% | 1999-03-29 | Lost |
| 944 | 966 | 47% | 1998-03-13 | Lost |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1047.9 vs 1034.1 has a 51.99% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).