The Lock of Colmar
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32 (8 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / Free French): 12
Defender wins (German): 20
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
964 | 1013 | 43% | 2024-08-23 | Won |
1107 | 982 | 67% | 2023-02-26 | Won |
1011 | 1249 | 20% | 2021-03-11 | Lost |
875 | 1094 | 22% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
1061 | 1048 | 52% | 2021-02-15 | Won |
1030 | 1102 | 40% | 2021-01-02 | Lost |
1054 | 1087 | 45% | 2020-11-29 | Won |
1082 | 1307 | 21% | 2019-05-29 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1023 vs 1110.3 has a 37.7% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).