The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 75 (18 on the archive and 57 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 35
Defender wins (American): 40
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1123 | 1142 | 47% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
1135 | 1055 | 61% | 2023-05-06 | Lost |
1249 | 778 | 94% | 2020-06-02 | Won |
1093 | 1090 | 50% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
1004 | 875 | 68% | 2019-07-13 | Lost |
1156 | 944 | 77% | 2019-05-30 | Lost |
1110 | 962 | 70% | 2019-01-08 | Won |
1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Won |
1151 | 1068 | 62% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
1152 | 987 | 72% | 2018-08-22 | Won |
952 | 1289 | 13% | 2018-06-30 | Lost |
1117 | 1087 | 54% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
1000 | 864 | 69% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
869 | 1110 | 20% | 2018-03-28 | Lost |
1040 | 1102 | 41% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
964 | 1013 | 43% | 2018-02-24 | Lost |
1047 | 951 | 63% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
969 | 947 | 53% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1067.7 vs 1019.6 has a 56.89% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).