Gavin Take
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 64 (19 on the archive and 45 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 35
Defender wins (German): 29
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1043 | 948 | 63% | 2024-01-14 | Won |
| 1021 | 1050 | 46% | 2023-07-24 | Lost |
| 939 | 1004 | 41% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 1004 | 939 | 59% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 907 | 1003 | 37% | 2023-01-03 | Won |
| 999 | 1007 | 49% | 2022-07-24 | Won |
| 952 | 1064 | 34% | 2022-06-07 | Won |
| 1003 | 955 | 57% | 2022-04-24 | Won |
| 1050 | 991 | 58% | 2021-12-28 | Won |
| 948 | 1200 | 19% | 2020-07-16 | Won |
| 1036 | 989 | 57% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 907 | 924 | 48% | 2020-03-08 | Won |
| 988 | 1140 | 29% | 2019-11-04 | Lost |
| 1140 | 968 | 73% | 2019-06-03 | Won |
| 948 | 1040 | 37% | 2019-04-27 | Won |
| 948 | 1040 | 37% | 2019-01-26 | Lost |
| 1004 | 946 | 58% | 2019-01-12 | Lost |
| 907 | 1029 | 33% | 2018-07-27 | Won |
| 932 | 948 | 48% | 2017-05-22 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 982.9 vs 1009.7 has a 46.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).