Tropic Lightning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 91 (17 on the archive and 74 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 40
Defender wins (Japanese): 51
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1156 | 1146 | 51% | 2024-09-09 | Won |
1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-03-10 | Lost |
1289 | 1092 | 76% | 2022-06-17 | Won |
1049 | 1015 | 55% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
1038 | 1152 | 34% | 2020-12-28 | Lost |
1128 | 1111 | 52% | 2020-04-10 | Won |
1138 | 1153 | 48% | 2018-11-29 | Lost |
986 | 1107 | 33% | 2017-11-16 | Lost |
875 | 1110 | 21% | 2017-09-06 | Lost |
1124 | 1107 | 52% | 2016-11-05 | Lost |
817 | 1107 | 16% | 2014-04-07 | Won |
969 | 976 | 49% | 2013-12-14 | Won |
999 | 1048 | 43% | 2013-07-16 | Lost |
963 | 925 | 55% | 2013-06-14 | Lost |
1097 | 1073 | 53% | 2013-01-19 | Lost |
1082 | 1067 | 52% | 2012-12-23 | Lost |
1087 | 864 | 78% | 2012-11-17 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1052.1 vs 1067.1 has a 47.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).