Second Crack at Caumont
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 254 (51 on the archive and 203 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 124
Defender wins (German): 130
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1043 | 1310 | 18% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 1379 | 1400 | 47% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 907 | 885 | 53% | 2023-08-21 | Won |
| 1064 | 796 | 82% | 2022-10-20 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1062 | 49% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 969 | 969 | 50% | 2022-06-12 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1038 | 74% | 2021-09-11 | Won |
| 949 | 937 | 52% | 2021-09-01 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1092 | 66% | 2021-01-11 | Won |
| 982 | 880 | 64% | 2020-10-31 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1049 | 50% | 2020-09-27 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1011 | 55% | 2020-06-17 | Lost |
| 1158 | 971 | 75% | 2020-05-06 | Won |
| 1091 | 907 | 74% | 2020-05-03 | Won |
| 1006 | 1055 | 43% | 2020-05-02 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1063 | 47% | 2020-01-17 | Won |
| 1058 | 995 | 59% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 1310 | 1202 | 65% | 2018-05-13 | Won |
| 1065 | 1029 | 55% | 2018-05-12 | Won |
| 1158 | 971 | 75% | 2018-04-29 | Won |
| 948 | 1200 | 19% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 948 | 1200 | 19% | 2018-02-10 | Won |
| 969 | 926 | 56% | 2018-01-01 | Won |
| 906 | 1216 | 14% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1140 | 50% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 938 | 1158 | 22% | 2015-07-08 | Won |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2014-09-19 | Won |
| 1087 | 1034 | 58% | 2014-05-16 | Won |
| 1063 | 1092 | 46% | 2013-11-10 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1091 | 51% | 2013-08-15 | Lost |
| 937 | 782 | 71% | 2013-04-14 | Lost |
| 1067 | 963 | 65% | 2012-08-10 | Lost |
| 938 | 1061 | 33% | 2012-06-30 | Won |
| 1063 | 1084 | 47% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1155 | 1022 | 68% | 2011-10-02 | Won |
| 1111 | 987 | 67% | 2011-06-24 | Won |
| 1143 | 1228 | 38% | 2011-06-17 | Lost |
| 901 | 1010 | 35% | 2009-12-11 | Lost |
| 966 | 901 | 59% | 2009-10-24 | Won |
| 997 | 968 | 54% | 2009-04-22 | Won |
| 1074 | 1098 | 47% | 2009-04-03 | Won |
| 1096 | 1098 | 50% | 2009-03-18 | Lost |
| 973 | 1001 | 46% | 2009-02-28 | Won |
| 1050 | 1096 | 43% | 2009-02-12 | Won |
| 1228 | 1011 | 78% | 2009-02-06 | Won |
| 1030 | 959 | 60% | 2009-01-13 | Won |
| 1118 | 1227 | 35% | 2009-01-03 | Won |
| 962 | 1030 | 40% | 2008-10-28 | Won |
| 1148 | 994 | 71% | 2008-08-12 | Won |
| 1118 | 1138 | 47% | | Lost |
| 962 | 1138 | 27% | | Lost |
Attacking (28 wins) average ELOs: 1056.4 vs 1050.3 has a 50.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).