Marders not Martyrs
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 217 (52 on the archive and 165 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 105
Defender wins (German): 111
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 954 | 954 | 50% | 2024-09-08 | Won |
| 937 | 1007 | 40% | 2024-01-13 | Lost |
| 999 | 1340 | 12% | 2024-01-13 | Lost |
| 945 | 1042 | 36% | 2023-10-29 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1112 | 43% | 2023-04-08 | Won |
| 1282 | 896 | 90% | 2023-02-19 | Won |
| 1431 | 925 | 95% | 2022-03-31 | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-03-19 | Lost |
| 944 | 1164 | 22% | 2022-03-11 | Lost |
| 1103 | 913 | 75% | 2021-08-09 | Lost |
| 951 | 1167 | 22% | 2020-09-12 | Won |
| 1058 | 1016 | 56% | 2020-04-07 | Won |
| 1014 | 1003 | 52% | 2019-07-20 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1209 | 45% | 2019-07-06 | Won |
| 959 | 958 | 50% | 2016-12-31 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1068 | 41% | 2016-06-25 | Won |
| 1002 | 1068 | 41% | 2016-06-02 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1068 | 41% | 2016-01-15 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1002 | 59% | 2016-01-12 | Lost |
| 945 | 984 | 44% | 2014-06-13 | Won |
| 945 | 984 | 44% | 2014-06-13 | Won |
| 922 | 984 | 41% | 2014-06-13 | Won |
| 1078 | 978 | 64% | 2014-05-10 | Lost |
| 1117 | 945 | 73% | 2013-01-08 | Won |
| 1117 | 945 | 73% | 2013-01-07 | Won |
| 1068 | 1049 | 53% | 2012-12-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2012-08-15 | Won |
| 1109 | 1098 | 52% | 2012-01-04 | Won |
| 1110 | 1026 | 62% | 2011-08-01 | Won |
| 940 | 879 | 59% | 2011-06-20 | Won |
| 928 | 1081 | 29% | 2010-09-07 | Lost |
| 953 | 1023 | 40% | 2010-08-23 | Lost |
| 919 | 959 | 44% | 2010-08-15 | Won |
| 996 | 1083 | 38% | 2010-06-13 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2010-03-20 | Tied |
| 982 | 1012 | 46% | 2008-09-02 | Won |
| 1083 | 960 | 67% | 2007-10-28 | Won |
| 1031 | 1133 | 36% | 2007-10-28 | Won |
| 980 | 1213 | 21% | 2007-10-28 | Won |
| 1180 | 1228 | 43% | 2007-10-17 | Lost |
| 997 | 1083 | 38% | 2007-09-18 | Won |
| 1080 | 1137 | 42% | 2007-06-20 | Won |
| 1080 | 1202 | 33% | 2007-02-16 | Won |
| 1041 | 1185 | 30% | 2006-12-02 | Won |
| 1056 | 1099 | 44% | 2006-11-24 | Won |
| 1095 | 1100 | 49% | 2006-11-14 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1095 | 51% | 2006-11-14 | Won |
| 1092 | 1041 | 57% | 2006-09-30 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1045 | 46% | 2006-09-15 | Won |
| 922 | 922 | 50% | 2006-09-07 | Lost |
| 969 | 1058 | 37% | 2006-09-05 | Won |
| 893 | 1025 | 32% | 2006-08-23 | Won |
Attacking (31 wins) average ELOs: 1031.1 vs 1058.7 has a 46.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).