The Road to Lyon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 23
Attacker wins (German): 16
Defender wins (French): 5
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 966 | 907 | 58% | 2026-05-02 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2026-04-04 | | Won |
| 1266 | 1142 | 67% | 2023-01-29 | | Won |
| 904 | 1020 | 34% | 2021-11-19 | | Won |
| 1170 | 1078 | 63% | 2020-11-28 | | Won |
| 992 | 1056 | 41% | 2020-11-06 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2017-05-09 | | Won |
| 846 | 981 | 31% | 2017-03-04 | | Won |
| 846 | 981 | 31% | 2017-03-04 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1024 | 68% | 2014-10-05 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2012-10-26 | | Won |
| 1099 | 695 | 91% | 2012-03-17 | | Won |
| 695 | 1000 | 15% | 2012-03-16 | | Won |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2010-04-01 | | Won |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2007-04-10 | | Won |
| 862 | 1150 | 16% | 2007-03-30 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2006-09-08 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2006-06-22 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2004-07-06 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2004-06-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2003-11-09 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2003-07-24 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 899 | 80% | 2002-01-24 | | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1046.3 vs 1017.1 has a 54.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).