Escape to Wiltz
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 28
Attacker wins (American): 11
Defender wins (German): 15
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 952 | 952 | 50% | 2025-12-26 | Won |
| 1005 | 1038 | 45% | 2025-10-03 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1144 | 48% | 2025-09-06 | Lost |
| 947 | 947 | 50% | 2023-12-17 | Lost |
| 934 | 1147 | 23% | 2023-11-17 | Won |
| 1033 | 893 | 69% | 2023-01-18 | Lost |
| 1000 | 780 | 78% | 2023-01-05 | Won |
| 1120 | 1066 | 58% | 2020-02-01 | Won |
| 1120 | 1066 | 58% | 2020-02-01 | Won |
| 1094 | 1218 | 33% | 2016-08-10 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2015-11-08 | Lost |
| 1170 | 959 | 77% | 2012-05-28 | Won |
| 1117 | 1045 | 60% | 2010-12-21 | Lost |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2008-05-05 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1069 | 43% | 2008-01-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1012 | 46% | 2006-01-14 | Lost |
| 927 | 1131 | 24% | 2005-09-17 | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2005-02-04 | Won |
| 1344 | 1201 | 69% | 2005-02-04 | Won |
| 889 | 927 | 45% | 2004-09-18 | Lost |
| 1229 | 1264 | 45% | 2004-05-28 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1219 | 39% | 2004-05-16 | Won |
| 1100 | 1023 | 61% | 2004-05-07 | Lost |
| 1303 | 1159 | 70% | 2004-03-21 | Won |
| 1135 | 1233 | 36% | 2004-02-21 | Won |
| 1233 | 1135 | 64% | 2004-02-10 | Won |
| 1061 | 1182 | 33% | 2004-01-28 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1122 | 55% | 2004-01-17 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1078.3 vs 1071.2 has a 51.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).