The Guns of Naro
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17
Attacker wins (American): 8
Defender wins (Italian): 8
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1274 | 1273 | 50% | 2024-02-22 | Won |
| 1204 | 1204 | 50% | 2024-02-09 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1032 | 46% | 2022-12-01 | Lost |
| 948 | 955 | 49% | 2022-07-10 | Lost |
| 907 | 885 | 53% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1094 | 1086 | 51% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 948 | 1018 | 40% | 2021-02-24 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-02-24 | Lost |
| 1067 | 958 | 65% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 985 | 1310 | 13% | 2017-05-05 | Lost |
| 1183 | 983 | 76% | 2015-04-18 | Won |
| 1017 | 968 | 57% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
| 1142 | 969 | 73% | 2014-07-06 | Won |
| 991 | 949 | 56% | 2013-12-28 | Tied |
| 1000 | 1022 | 47% | 2012-04-16 | Won |
| 920 | 966 | 43% | 2000-04-07 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1160 | 36% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1049 vs 1048.6 has a 50.06% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).