Confusion Reigns
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 43
Attacker wins (American): 23
Defender wins (German): 18
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1036 | 990 | 57% | 2024-01-07 | Lost |
| 971 | 971 | 50% | 2023-08-30 | Lost |
| 918 | 1100 | 26% | 2023-04-22 | Won |
| 1055 | 952 | 64% | 2020-07-04 | Won |
| 1055 | 952 | 64% | 2020-07-04 | Won |
| 849 | 1046 | 24% | 2019-10-17 | Lost |
| 1044 | 965 | 61% | 2019-07-26 | Won |
| 1058 | 1053 | 51% | 2019-05-13 | Won |
| 1223 | 1007 | 78% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
| 1009 | 1025 | 48% | 2016-09-12 | Lost |
| 972 | 917 | 58% | 2016-08-21 | Won |
| 1059 | 921 | 69% | 2016-05-07 | Won |
| 1127 | 1113 | 52% | 2015-12-10 | Won |
| 983 | 1044 | 41% | 2015-08-28 | Won |
| 1019 | 990 | 54% | 2014-08-16 | Won |
| 1031 | 955 | 61% | 2014-06-07 | Won |
| 1094 | 944 | 70% | 2014-05-25 | Lost |
| 849 | 1114 | 18% | 2014-01-18 | Lost |
| 1114 | 849 | 82% | 2013-12-08 | Won |
| 1019 | 1114 | 37% | 2013-10-01 | Won |
| 1114 | 1048 | 59% | 2013-09-26 | Lost |
| 956 | 1048 | 37% | 2013-09-13 | Lost |
| 951 | 862 | 63% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
| 951 | 889 | 59% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
| 924 | 911 | 52% | 2011-09-14 | Won |
| 1177 | 1037 | 69% | 2010-03-18 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1030 | 47% | 2009-11-16 | Won |
| 1006 | 1138 | 32% | 2009-07-30 | Lost |
| 919 | 1138 | 22% | 2009-02-27 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1063 | 45% | 2009-01-01 | Lost |
| 955 | 917 | 55% | 2008-05-14 | Lost |
| 965 | 1047 | 38% | 2007-04-22 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1026 | 47% | 2007-04-14 | Won |
| 1133 | 1228 | 37% | 2007-01-05 | Lost |
| 946 | 1071 | 33% | 2005-01-15 | Won |
| 935 | 862 | 60% | 2005-01-14 | Won |
| 1010 | 1098 | 38% | 2004-11-18 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1034 | 59% | 2004-08-10 | Won |
| 1084 | 1098 | 48% | 2004-06-17 | Lost |
| 1148 | 917 | 79% | 2004-04-16 | Won |
| 1138 | 979 | 71% | 2002-09-07 | Won |
| 1015 | 1098 | 38% | 2002-06-29 | Lost |
| 1046 | 911 | 69% | 1994-04-10 | Lost |
Attacking (24 wins) average ELOs: 1023.3 vs 1011 has a 51.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).