Confusion Reigns
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 227 (38 on the archive and 189 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 129
Defender wins (German): 98
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1036 | 990 | 57% | 2024-01-07 | Lost |
930 | 1012 | 38% | 2023-08-30 | Lost |
949 | 949 | 50% | 2020-07-04 | Won |
1027 | 1010 | 52% | 2019-07-26 | Won |
1012 | 1012 | 50% | 2019-05-13 | Won |
1225 | 1007 | 78% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
1026 | 993 | 55% | 2016-09-12 | Lost |
972 | 1204 | 21% | 2016-08-21 | Won |
1038 | 1013 | 54% | 2016-05-07 | Won |
1127 | 1113 | 52% | 2015-12-10 | Won |
990 | 1027 | 45% | 2015-08-28 | Won |
992 | 988 | 51% | 2014-08-16 | Won |
1108 | 917 | 75% | 2014-06-07 | Won |
1115 | 944 | 73% | 2014-05-25 | Lost |
849 | 1109 | 18% | 2014-01-18 | Lost |
1109 | 849 | 82% | 2013-12-08 | Won |
1018 | 1109 | 37% | 2013-10-01 | Won |
1109 | 1056 | 58% | 2013-09-26 | Lost |
955 | 1056 | 36% | 2013-09-13 | Lost |
952 | 861 | 63% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
952 | 887 | 59% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
924 | 911 | 52% | 2011-09-14 | Won |
1177 | 1037 | 69% | 2010-03-18 | Lost |
1010 | 1030 | 47% | 2009-11-16 | Won |
1006 | 1142 | 31% | 2009-07-30 | Lost |
1115 | 1138 | 47% | 2009-02-27 | Lost |
1024 | 1063 | 44% | 2009-01-01 | Lost |
924 | 1204 | 17% | 2008-05-14 | Lost |
1010 | 1047 | 45% | 2007-04-22 | Lost |
1011 | 1013 | 50% | 2007-04-14 | Won |
1131 | 1227 | 37% | 2007-01-05 | Lost |
1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2005-01-15 | Won |
935 | 862 | 60% | 2005-01-14 | Won |
1006 | 1096 | 37% | 2004-11-18 | Lost |
1084 | 1096 | 48% | 2004-06-17 | Lost |
925 | 1204 | 17% | 2004-04-16 | Won |
1142 | 980 | 72% | 2002-09-07 | Won |
1011 | 1096 | 38% | 2002-06-29 | Lost |
Attacking (21 wins) average ELOs: 1024.4 vs 1032.9 has a 48.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).