Independence Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30 (12 on the archive and 18 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Czechoslovakian): 12
Defender wins (German): 18
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1030 | 1000 | 54% | 2026-06-25 | Lost |
| 1211 | 1179 | 55% | 2026-05-28 | Won |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2026-05-23 | Lost |
| 977 | 991 | 48% | 2026-05-22 | Lost |
| 1089 | 933 | 71% | 2026-05-01 | Won |
| 1030 | 988 | 56% | 2026-04-30 | Won |
| 1012 | 1030 | 47% | 2026-03-28 | Lost |
| 985 | 971 | 52% | 2026-03-01 | Won |
| 914 | 1156 | 20% | 2026-02-28 | Lost |
| 924 | 1045 | 33% | 2026-01-14 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1194 | 54% | 2025-12-16 | Won |
| 1091 | 1022 | 60% | 2025-10-09 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1038.3 vs 1040.5 has a 49.68% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).