First Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 42 (13 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 23
Defender wins (French): 17
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (French): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1170 | 1048 | 67% | 2026-04-11 | Won |
| 1172 | 1228 | 42% | 2026-04-06 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1048 | 73% | 2026-03-26 | Won |
| 1172 | 1036 | 69% | 2026-03-21 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1121 | 36% | 2026-03-18 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1039 | 63% | 2026-03-13 | Won |
| 896 | 884 | 52% | 2026-03-08 | Won |
| 1015 | 1253 | 20% | 2026-03-06 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1094 | 49% | 2026-02-20 | Lost |
| 1208 | 1053 | 71% | 2026-01-30 | Won |
| 1159 | 1180 | 47% | 2025-12-06 | Won |
| 1043 | 1043 | 50% | 2025-10-19 | Won |
| 968 | 945 | 53% | 2024-10-07 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1097.1 vs 1074.8 has a 53.21% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).