First Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 25 (7 on the archive and 18 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (French): 10
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (French): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 896 | 902 | 49% | 2026-03-08 | Won |
| 950 | 1253 | 15% | 2026-03-06 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1086 | 50% | 2026-02-20 | Lost |
| 1186 | 1052 | 68% | 2026-01-30 | Won |
| 1173 | 1180 | 49% | 2025-12-06 | Won |
| 1037 | 1049 | 48% | 2025-10-19 | Won |
| 995 | 947 | 57% | 2024-10-07 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1046.4 vs 1067 has a 47.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).