Posts 9-11
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 9 (5 on the archive and 4 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 4
Defender wins (Italian): 4
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Australian): 0
Defender wins (Italian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1066 | 1066 | 50% | 2026-05-12 | Won |
| 820 | 1113 | 16% | 2025-08-06 | Lost |
| 1202 | 1073 | 68% | 2023-12-30 | Won |
| 928 | 1151 | 22% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1025 | 64% | 2023-06-13 | Won |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1028.4 vs 1085.6 has a 41.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).