Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 84 (27 on the archive and 57 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 41
Defender wins (German): 39
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 1167 | 34% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1205 | 870 | 87% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1028 | 996 | 55% | 2025-11-28 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1264 | 33% | 2025-09-26 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1036 | 50% | 2025-09-22 | Lost |
| 995 | 1035 | 44% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1159 | 1169 | 49% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 1032 | 993 | 56% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1165 | 894 | 83% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1095 | 40% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 983 | 1130 | 30% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1120 | 1153 | 45% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 966 | 1063 | 36% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1092 | 40% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 954 | 55% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1052 | 1203 | 30% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1221 | 900 | 86% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1123 | 1232 | 35% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 1147 | 934 | 77% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 980 | 1040 | 41% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 999 | 1232 | 21% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1430 | 1017 | 92% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 752 | 1221 | 6% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1012 | 71% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1221 | 752 | 94% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1232 | 1177 | 58% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1087 vs 1060.4 has a 53.82% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).