Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 87 (27 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 43
Defender wins (German): 40
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1075 | 1155 | 39% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1228 | 869 | 89% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1075 | 992 | 62% | 2025-11-28 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1263 | 33% | 2025-09-26 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1039 | 50% | 2025-09-22 | Lost |
| 988 | 1035 | 43% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1127 | 1182 | 42% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 1040 | 993 | 57% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1215 | 894 | 86% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1142 | 34% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 969 | 1130 | 28% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1120 | 1153 | 45% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 944 | 1089 | 30% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1092 | 42% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 988 | 983 | 51% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1053 | 1238 | 26% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1210 | 900 | 86% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1127 | 1251 | 33% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 1151 | 928 | 78% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 973 | 1035 | 41% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 1001 | 1251 | 19% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1434 | 1017 | 92% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1101 | 998 | 64% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 746 | 1210 | 6% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1001 | 77% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1210 | 746 | 94% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1251 | 1159 | 63% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1092.1 vs 1064.6 has a 53.95% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).