Loosening the Noose
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32 (10 on the archive and 22 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 14
Defender wins (German): 18
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 928 | 1003 | 39% | 2025-12-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 1021 | 45% | 2025-03-18 | Won |
| 1042 | 1039 | 50% | 2025-03-05 | Won |
| 1238 | 1225 | 52% | 2024-09-01 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1263 | 23% | 2023-10-14 | Lost |
| 1080 | 888 | 75% | 2023-07-06 | Won |
| 850 | 1042 | 25% | 2022-10-22 | Lost |
| 1007 | 969 | 55% | 2022-08-27 | Won |
| 1179 | 1231 | 43% | 2022-07-06 | Lost |
| 998 | 780 | 78% | 2022-03-25 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1036.2 vs 1046.1 has a 48.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).