Loosening the Noose
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31 (10 on the archive and 21 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 14
Defender wins (German): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 933 | 1003 | 40% | 2025-12-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 1020 | 46% | 2025-03-18 | Won |
| 1072 | 1039 | 55% | 2025-03-05 | Won |
| 1220 | 1206 | 52% | 2024-09-01 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1264 | 20% | 2023-10-14 | Lost |
| 1080 | 913 | 72% | 2023-07-06 | Won |
| 850 | 1041 | 25% | 2022-10-22 | Lost |
| 1029 | 969 | 59% | 2022-08-27 | Won |
| 1174 | 1234 | 41% | 2022-07-06 | Lost |
| 999 | 780 | 78% | 2022-03-25 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1036.5 vs 1046.9 has a 48.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).