Three Bars of Chocolate
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31 (12 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 14
Defender wins (German): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 949 | 949 | 50% | 2024-11-17 | Won |
| 964 | 1066 | 36% | 2023-06-17 | Lost |
| 1098 | 952 | 70% | 2023-02-07 | Won |
| 1172 | 1191 | 47% | 2022-10-02 | Won |
| 1018 | 1011 | 51% | 2022-09-12 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1011 | 51% | 2022-09-08 | Won |
| 996 | 879 | 66% | 2022-03-27 | Won |
| 879 | 1032 | 29% | 2022-02-15 | Lost |
| 1073 | 913 | 72% | 2022-01-30 | Won |
| 1252 | 1157 | 63% | 2022-01-20 | Lost |
| 878 | 991 | 34% | 2021-10-26 | Tied |
| 1189 | 1176 | 52% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1040.5 vs 1027.3 has a 51.89% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).