Kawaguchi's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (29 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 24
Defender wins (American (USMC)): 27
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1026 | 1026 | 50% | 2024-05-04 | Won |
| 1036 | 1041 | 49% | 2023-12-10 | Tied |
| 893 | 880 | 52% | 2023-06-24 | Lost |
| 1030 | 969 | 59% | 2022-12-22 | Lost |
| 1031 | 969 | 59% | 2022-11-16 | Won |
| 969 | 1431 | 7% | 2022-11-13 | Lost |
| 1007 | 969 | 55% | 2022-10-24 | Won |
| 954 | 1431 | 6% | 2022-09-03 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1144 | 38% | 2022-01-02 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1158 | 30% | 2021-10-31 | Lost |
| 977 | 972 | 51% | 2021-07-11 | Lost |
| 977 | 1053 | 39% | 2021-06-25 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1030 | 51% | 2021-01-30 | Tied |
| 965 | 959 | 51% | 2021-01-09 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2020-11-25 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1054 | 65% | 2020-11-15 | Lost |
| 992 | 1125 | 32% | 2020-08-09 | Lost |
| 1431 | 945 | 94% | 2020-05-21 | Won |
| 1173 | 1033 | 69% | 2020-05-19 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1044 | 66% | 2020-04-21 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1052 | 50% | 2020-03-26 | Lost |
| 1204 | 948 | 81% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
| 1431 | 1427 | 51% | 2020-02-15 | Won |
| 1094 | 1159 | 41% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1431 | 1141 | 84% | 2020-01-24 | Won |
| 983 | 1018 | 45% | 2020-01-10 | Won |
| 1040 | 948 | 63% | 2019-12-14 | Won |
| 959 | 948 | 52% | 2019-07-28 | Lost |
| 1148 | 948 | 76% | 2019-07-10 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1076.6 vs 1067.7 has a 51.28% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).