Kawaguchi's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (29 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 24
Defender wins (American (USMC)): 27
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1026 | 1026 | 50% | 2024-05-04 | Won |
1036 | 1043 | 49% | 2023-12-10 | Tied |
884 | 880 | 51% | 2023-06-24 | Lost |
1030 | 989 | 56% | 2022-12-22 | Lost |
1032 | 989 | 56% | 2022-11-16 | Won |
989 | 1431 | 7% | 2022-11-13 | Lost |
935 | 989 | 42% | 2022-10-24 | Won |
954 | 1431 | 6% | 2022-09-03 | Lost |
1056 | 1143 | 38% | 2022-01-02 | Lost |
935 | 1179 | 20% | 2021-10-31 | Lost |
1024 | 972 | 57% | 2021-07-11 | Lost |
1024 | 1023 | 50% | 2021-06-25 | Lost |
1035 | 1030 | 51% | 2021-01-30 | Tied |
1041 | 1016 | 54% | 2021-01-09 | Lost |
1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2020-11-25 | Lost |
1179 | 1054 | 67% | 2020-11-15 | Lost |
1020 | 1147 | 32% | 2020-08-09 | Lost |
1431 | 945 | 94% | 2020-05-21 | Won |
1159 | 1034 | 67% | 2020-05-19 | Lost |
1170 | 1031 | 69% | 2020-04-21 | Lost |
1049 | 1052 | 50% | 2020-03-26 | Lost |
1179 | 1014 | 72% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
1431 | 1427 | 51% | 2020-02-15 | Won |
1115 | 944 | 73% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
1431 | 1141 | 84% | 2020-01-24 | Won |
990 | 995 | 49% | 2020-01-10 | Won |
1040 | 1014 | 54% | 2019-12-14 | Won |
1016 | 1014 | 50% | 2019-07-28 | Lost |
1027 | 1014 | 52% | 2019-07-10 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1077.2 vs 1072.7 has a 50.65% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).