Black Day in Hatten
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 144 (52 on the archive and 92 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 78
Defender wins (German): 66
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 848 | 949 | 36% | 2024-11-18 | Lost |
| 954 | 1080 | 33% | 2024-06-09 | Lost |
| 962 | 948 | 52% | 2024-02-28 | Lost |
| 984 | 1099 | 34% | 2024-01-20 | Lost |
| 981 | 1050 | 40% | 2023-06-10 | Lost |
| 930 | 955 | 46% | 2023-01-23 | Won |
| 1118 | 1188 | 40% | 2023-01-23 | Lost |
| 949 | 848 | 64% | 2023-01-20 | Won |
| 1055 | 1159 | 35% | 2022-11-01 | Won |
| 948 | 1204 | 19% | 2022-09-25 | Lost |
| 867 | 880 | 48% | 2022-08-06 | Won |
| 1343 | 1400 | 42% | 2022-06-10 | Lost |
| 1153 | 944 | 77% | 2022-03-23 | Won |
| 1065 | 1022 | 56% | 2021-12-05 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1091 | 50% | 2021-12-04 | Won |
| 1032 | 1002 | 54% | 2021-10-16 | Won |
| 969 | 969 | 50% | 2021-10-13 | Won |
| 1056 | 1101 | 44% | 2021-02-18 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1159 | 33% | 2021-02-01 | Won |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2020-12-02 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1125 | 55% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 925 | 1074 | 30% | 2020-06-07 | Won |
| 924 | 983 | 42% | 2020-05-31 | Won |
| 1216 | 932 | 84% | 2020-04-13 | Won |
| 1064 | 1040 | 53% | 2019-11-03 | Won |
| 1018 | 942 | 61% | 2019-10-22 | Won |
| 942 | 1018 | 39% | 2019-10-16 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1043 | 60% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1128 | 1022 | 65% | 2019-09-16 | Won |
| 1211 | 1158 | 58% | 2019-04-24 | Won |
| 858 | 1055 | 24% | 2019-01-24 | Lost |
| 931 | 926 | 51% | 2018-12-30 | Won |
| 1226 | 1216 | 51% | 2018-12-23 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1183 | 28% | 2018-12-08 | Won |
| 986 | 1009 | 47% | 2018-12-08 | Won |
| 1223 | 1007 | 78% | 2018-11-24 | Lost |
| 1148 | 948 | 76% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 937 | 1091 | 29% | 2018-11-06 | Won |
| 938 | 1045 | 35% | 2018-11-06 | Won |
| 918 | 1100 | 26% | 2018-11-03 | Lost |
| 879 | 1017 | 31% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 879 | 1017 | 31% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 879 | 1017 | 31% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 1034 | 1140 | 35% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1011 | 63% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1082 | 1310 | 21% | 2018-10-04 | Lost |
| 857 | 1140 | 16% | 2018-09-26 | Lost |
| 848 | 880 | 45% | 2018-09-11 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1063 | 55% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 969 | 1137 | 28% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 982 | 907 | 61% | 2018-08-09 | Won |
| 1034 | 1138 | 35% | | Lost |
Attacking (27 wins) average ELOs: 1017.6 vs 1055.9 has a 44.51% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).