Up the Liri Valley
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 120 (39 on the archive and 81 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 62
Defender wins (German): 58
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1264 | 1144 | 67% | 2025-11-09 | Won |
| 1049 | 1111 | 41% | 2025-11-08 | Won |
| 1017 | 976 | 56% | 2025-11-08 | Lost |
| 727 | 1140 | 8% | 2025-11-08 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1264 | 33% | 2025-10-03 | Lost |
| 1111 | 930 | 74% | 2025-06-20 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
| 1162 | 983 | 74% | 2023-08-12 | Lost |
| 933 | 1146 | 23% | 2022-11-19 | Won |
| 1431 | 954 | 94% | 2022-10-30 | Won |
| 904 | 1085 | 26% | 2022-06-25 | Lost |
| 968 | 949 | 53% | 2022-06-25 | Won |
| 992 | 1131 | 31% | 2022-06-25 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1052 | 53% | 2022-06-25 | Won |
| 1131 | 904 | 79% | 2022-06-16 | Lost |
| 938 | 1131 | 25% | 2022-05-25 | Won |
| 1066 | 1066 | 50% | 2022-03-28 | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-03-05 | Lost |
| 999 | 780 | 78% | 2022-02-16 | Lost |
| 780 | 1029 | 19% | 2021-02-17 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1038 | 64% | 2020-10-06 | Lost |
| 1226 | 995 | 79% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 993 | 1025 | 45% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1025 | 971 | 58% | 2020-03-29 | Lost |
| 989 | 890 | 64% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 1009 | 993 | 52% | 2019-11-16 | Won |
| 1045 | 1019 | 54% | 2019-10-19 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1140 | 34% | 2018-11-01 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1140 | 54% | 2018-10-31 | Lost |
| 920 | 1056 | 31% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 877 | 1023 | 30% | 2018-08-25 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1117 | 39% | 2018-08-03 | Won |
| 932 | 989 | 42% | 2018-07-28 | Won |
| 1064 | 992 | 60% | 2018-07-19 | Won |
| 1095 | 1218 | 33% | 2018-04-15 | Lost |
| 969 | 1120 | 30% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1188 | 1220 | 45% | 2018-03-18 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1029 | 54% | 2018-01-18 | Won |
| 1234 | 1174 | 59% | 2017-12-06 | Lost |
Attacking (19 wins) average ELOs: 1047.7 vs 1060.4 has a 48.17% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).