Raff's Rules
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 137 (33 on the archive and 104 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 64
Defender wins (German): 72
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 964 | 964 | 50% | 2025-03-09 | Won |
| 905 | 913 | 49% | 2025-03-07 | Won |
| 932 | 971 | 44% | 2025-02-28 | Won |
| 940 | 1008 | 40% | 2023-10-01 | Won |
| 1160 | 943 | 78% | 2023-03-26 | Lost |
| 1302 | 1102 | 76% | 2022-06-09 | Tied |
| 1147 | 954 | 75% | 2022-04-23 | Won |
| 866 | 937 | 40% | 2022-04-01 | Lost |
| 1307 | 993 | 86% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1064 | 929 | 69% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1018 | 974 | 56% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1223 | 31% | 2021-05-06 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1165 | 29% | 2020-11-27 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1226 | 22% | 2020-06-17 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1013 | 52% | 2020-06-06 | Lost |
| 1050 | 929 | 67% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1072 | 1010 | 59% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1024 | 52% | 2018-11-24 | Won |
| 1117 | 1136 | 47% | 2018-10-22 | Won |
| 1110 | 1052 | 58% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1302 | 974 | 87% | 2018-06-23 | Lost |
| 1037 | 946 | 63% | 2018-04-08 | Lost |
| 848 | 880 | 45% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1158 | 1289 | 32% | 2018-02-13 | Lost |
| 1195 | 845 | 88% | 2017-12-02 | Won |
| 1002 | 1004 | 50% | 2017-11-03 | Lost |
| 1020 | 983 | 55% | 2017-10-28 | Won |
| 1051 | 861 | 75% | 2017-10-24 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1065 | 48% | 2017-10-21 | Won |
| 952 | 1110 | 29% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 1045 | 996 | 57% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 913 | 1031 | 34% | 2017-05-27 | Lost |
| 1160 | 943 | 78% | 2017-05-07 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1056.2 vs 1011.9 has a 56.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).