Castles on the Horizon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (14 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 19
Defender wins (British): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1027 | 1070 | 44% | 2024-08-15 | Won |
| 1064 | 921 | 69% | 2022-12-11 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1023 | 67% | 2022-07-16 | Lost |
| 968 | 1085 | 34% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 865 | 913 | 43% | 2021-08-17 | Won |
| 1102 | 1099 | 50% | 2020-04-30 | Won |
| 944 | 965 | 47% | 2020-02-29 | Lost |
| 955 | 1052 | 36% | 2019-06-01 | Won |
| 1264 | 1040 | 78% | 2017-10-20 | Won |
| 1134 | 983 | 70% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 984 | 1343 | 11% | 2017-05-13 | Lost |
| 1027 | 884 | 69% | 2017-05-01 | Lost |
| 1167 | 1195 | 46% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1052.7 vs 1047.2 has a 50.79% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).