Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 55 (16 on the archive and 39 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 21
Defender wins (German): 34
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1050 | 1278 | 21% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1244 | 987 | 81% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1158 | 52% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1203 | 65% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1061 | 50% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 999 | 1223 | 22% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 788 | 80% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1138 | 913 | 79% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1160 | 983 | 73% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1023 | 49% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1023 | 53% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1002 | 50% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 1048 | 1195 | 30% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 945 | 1015 | 40% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1302 | 1254 | 57% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 851 | 1031 | 26% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1086.2 vs 1071.1 has a 52.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).