Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 29
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1132 | 30% | 2025-04-05 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1346 | 15% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1052 | 965 | 62% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1160 | 34% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1198 | 54% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1064 | 45% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 995 | 1076 | 39% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 780 | 81% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1153 | 951 | 76% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1191 | 1060 | 68% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1146 | 32% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1146 | 37% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1092 | 955 | 69% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 1108 | 1143 | 45% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 1006 | 999 | 51% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1219 | 1313 | 37% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 1187 | 1057 | 68% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1084.7 vs 1087.7 has a 49.57% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).