The Spearhead
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 25 (9 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 2
Defender wins (German): 23
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1152 | 1030 | 67% | 2024-12-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1033 | 45% | 2021-06-17 | | Lost |
| 728 | 1284 | 4% | 2020-08-24 | | Lost |
| 911 | 1218 | 15% | 2019-10-18 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1146 | 25% | 2019-06-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1227 | 21% | 2018-05-20 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2016-06-27 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 974 | 62% | 2016-06-11 | | Lost |
| 921 | 1014 | 37% | 2016-04-29 | | Lost |
Attacking (0 wins) average ELOs: 976.3 vs 1102.9 has a 32.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).