A Bitter Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (17 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 17
Defender wins (German): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2025-12-28 | | Lost |
| 932 | 1040 | 35% | 2025-11-09 | | Lost |
| 1152 | 1030 | 67% | 2024-10-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 970 | 54% | 2023-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 957 | 67% | 2023-03-27 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1018 | 68% | 2023-03-11 | | Tied |
| 1134 | 1152 | 47% | 2021-12-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2021-08-17 | | Lost |
| 917 | 1004 | 38% | 2020-06-27 | | Won |
| 985 | 989 | 49% | 2020-05-29 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1146 | 25% | 2019-05-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2018-05-21 | | Lost |
| 979 | 1231 | 19% | 2017-07-28 | | Lost |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2017-01-20 | | Won |
| 1284 | 939 | 88% | 2016-08-29 | | Won |
| 874 | 1284 | 9% | 2016-08-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1059 | 42% | 2016-07-07 | | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1035.9 vs 1067.1 has a 45.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).