Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 103 (36 on the archive and 67 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 42
Defender wins (Polish): 61
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1118 | 1118 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Won |
976 | 969 | 51% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
1249 | 963 | 84% | 2023-11-19 | Won |
1038 | 1064 | 46% | 2023-10-09 | Lost |
1140 | 992 | 70% | 2023-09-19 | Lost |
1029 | 955 | 60% | 2023-03-25 | Lost |
1128 | 900 | 79% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
1010 | 1100 | 37% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
974 | 963 | 52% | 2023-03-09 | Won |
969 | 1003 | 45% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
940 | 1123 | 26% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
1164 | 1123 | 56% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
978 | 1284 | 15% | 2020-06-30 | Lost |
866 | 933 | 40% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
1068 | 945 | 67% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
982 | 945 | 55% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
974 | 1021 | 43% | 2019-11-18 | Lost |
1021 | 974 | 57% | 2019-09-11 | Won |
1284 | 1006 | 83% | 2019-05-12 | Won |
1087 | 1120 | 45% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
1001 | 969 | 55% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
926 | 969 | 44% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
915 | 1000 | 38% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
1100 | 1055 | 56% | 2018-11-16 | Won |
1058 | 1047 | 52% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
969 | 996 | 46% | 2017-09-17 | Lost |
900 | 1038 | 31% | 2017-08-03 | Lost |
1152 | 1038 | 66% | 2017-07-02 | Lost |
1307 | 988 | 86% | 2016-09-02 | Won |
933 | 1087 | 29% | 2016-08-13 | Lost |
1004 | 1047 | 44% | 2016-08-05 | Lost |
1055 | 1183 | 32% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
1135 | 1055 | 61% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
938 | 1249 | 14% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
1224 | 1185 | 56% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
1102 | 1102 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1047.6 vs 1041.9 has a 50.82% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).