The Winter City
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 96 (40 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Slovak): 46
Defender wins (Polish): 50
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1062 | 41% | 2026-06-10 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2025-05-29 | Lost |
| 938 | 1000 | 41% | 2025-05-19 | Lost |
| 927 | 1000 | 40% | 2025-05-19 | Lost |
| 1000 | 927 | 60% | 2025-05-01 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1000 | 57% | 2025-02-06 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2025-01-06 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1009 | 1014 | 49% | 2023-11-28 | Won |
| 1030 | 978 | 57% | 2023-11-18 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1016 | 48% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-03-18 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-07-22 | Won |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-05-24 | Lost |
| 903 | 884 | 53% | 2021-04-02 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-02-10 | Won |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2021-01-11 | Lost |
| 870 | 1000 | 32% | 2020-03-26 | Won |
| 1139 | 1066 | 60% | 2020-03-17 | Won |
| 987 | 902 | 62% | 2020-02-08 | Lost |
| 1166 | 985 | 74% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1000 | 1077 | 39% | 2019-08-17 | Won |
| 936 | 1125 | 25% | 2019-05-13 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2019-02-07 | Won |
| 1000 | 1164 | 28% | 2018-12-28 | Lost |
| 974 | 1164 | 25% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2017-10-15 | Won |
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1097 | 921 | 73% | 2017-04-01 | Won |
| 988 | 974 | 52% | 2016-11-16 | Won |
| 1061 | 1012 | 57% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1044 | 50% | 2016-04-05 | Won |
| 1119 | 1086 | 55% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1074 | 44% | | Won |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1005.6 vs 1010.8 has a 49.26% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).