Deadly Assumption
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 38 (12 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (American): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1134 | 1276 | 31% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 947 | 947 | 50% | 2023-03-05 | Lost |
| 1253 | 996 | 81% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 1065 | 1127 | 41% | 2023-02-03 | Lost |
| 999 | 982 | 52% | 2023-01-31 | Won |
| 913 | 865 | 57% | 2020-09-16 | Won |
| 1053 | 954 | 64% | 2020-04-18 | Lost |
| 1234 | 1421 | 25% | 2018-05-04 | Won |
| 1162 | 965 | 76% | 2017-08-13 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1040 | 46% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1040 | 969 | 60% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 872 | 884 | 48% | 2016-04-29 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1057.1 vs 1035.5 has a 53.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).