Start Fall Gelb
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (20 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 54
Defender wins (Belgian): 41
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1013 | 958 | 58% | 2025-11-01 | Lost |
| 965 | 843 | 67% | 2025-09-22 | Lost |
| 991 | 982 | 51% | 2024-11-08 | Won |
| 1030 | 1065 | 45% | 2024-11-07 | Won |
| 969 | 1113 | 30% | 2024-05-17 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1024 | 49% | 2022-10-17 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1015 | 51% | 2022-10-10 | Won |
| 773 | 1021 | 19% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 974 | 940 | 55% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
| 917 | 1061 | 30% | 2020-02-15 | Lost |
| 980 | 1003 | 47% | 2019-08-10 | Won |
| 1217 | 1191 | 54% | 2016-11-24 | Won |
| 1217 | 1204 | 52% | 2016-11-23 | Won |
| 945 | 1126 | 26% | 2016-09-03 | Won |
| 1151 | 1203 | 43% | 2016-02-28 | Won |
| 927 | 1018 | 37% | 2015-12-27 | Lost |
| 1117 | 945 | 73% | 2015-10-30 | Lost |
| 913 | 1109 | 24% | 2015-06-06 | Lost |
| 713 | 1151 | 7% | 2015-04-25 | Lost |
| 1340 | 943 | 91% | 2015-04-01 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1009.6 vs 1045.8 has a 44.81% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).