Coal in Their Stockings
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 128 (32 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 66
Defender wins (German): 62
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 917 | 1008 | 37% | 2025-12-13 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1039 | 50% | 2024-07-04 | Lost |
| 941 | 918 | 53% | 2024-03-19 | Won |
| 1191 | 1084 | 65% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1184 | 1084 | 64% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1232 | 1002 | 79% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1002 | 1232 | 21% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1073 | 42% | 2023-09-26 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1026 | 65% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1031 | 49% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 874 | 1098 | 22% | 2021-05-23 | Won |
| 874 | 1030 | 29% | 2020-05-06 | Lost |
| 1011 | 991 | 53% | 2020-04-29 | Lost |
| 978 | 1088 | 35% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 931 | 1045 | 34% | 2019-09-02 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1028 | 51% | 2019-07-20 | Lost |
| 1164 | 1118 | 57% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 970 | 1164 | 25% | 2019-05-16 | Lost |
| 949 | 1037 | 38% | 2019-01-19 | Won |
| 1159 | 1102 | 58% | 2018-01-27 | Won |
| 989 | 1184 | 25% | 2017-11-12 | Won |
| 1088 | 1120 | 45% | 2017-07-06 | Won |
| 1006 | 1065 | 42% | 2017-03-11 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1138 | 45% | 2016-10-13 | Lost |
| 1283 | 1002 | 83% | 2016-08-10 | Won |
| 1098 | 1020 | 61% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1198 | 1118 | 61% | 2016-06-10 | Won |
| 1096 | 1252 | 29% | 2016-06-01 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1053 | 62% | 2016-02-26 | Won |
| 1140 | 733 | 91% | 2016-01-20 | Won |
| 1021 | 1176 | 29% | 2015-03-13 | Won |
| 1235 | 991 | 80% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1063.3 vs 1064.1 has a 49.9% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).