The Island
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (17 on the archive and 12 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 21
Defender wins (German (SS)): 6
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1108 | 33% | 2024-12-22 | Won |
| 980 | 1076 | 37% | 2021-04-09 | Lost |
| 1007 | 926 | 61% | 2021-04-06 | Tied |
| 1163 | 1044 | 66% | 2020-11-12 | Won |
| 1028 | 1002 | 54% | 2020-10-05 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1049 | 50% | 2020-05-30 | Won |
| 1002 | 1108 | 35% | 2018-12-01 | Won |
| 1002 | 1108 | 35% | 2018-11-25 | Won |
| 1002 | 1108 | 35% | 2018-10-30 | Tied |
| 1108 | 878 | 79% | 2018-10-23 | Won |
| 846 | 981 | 31% | 2016-12-21 | Lost |
| 846 | 981 | 31% | 2016-12-21 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1172 | 50% | 2016-08-16 | Won |
| 999 | 1226 | 21% | 2015-06-28 | Won |
| 1434 | 944 | 94% | 2015-03-07 | Won |
| 1220 | 1185 | 55% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
| 1029 | 1038 | 49% | 2015-01-02 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1051.6 vs 1054.9 has a 49.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).