Totsugeki!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 28
Attacker wins (Japanese): 11
Defender wins (Chinese): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 941 | 941 | 50% | 2025-11-03 | Lost |
| 1292 | 1009 | 84% | 2025-10-26 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1292 | 16% | 2025-10-26 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1002 | 77% | 2025-10-09 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1083 | 53% | 2023-04-28 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1024 | 48% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 995 | 994 | 50% | 2022-05-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-05-22 | Lost |
| 958 | 1006 | 43% | 2020-08-27 | Lost |
| 958 | 1006 | 43% | 2020-08-26 | Lost |
| 1008 | 962 | 57% | 2020-08-22 | Lost |
| 958 | 1118 | 28% | 2020-08-18 | Won |
| 1074 | 1034 | 56% | 2020-08-16 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1121 | 35% | 2020-08-04 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1275 | 25% | 2020-07-31 | Won |
| 1135 | 1178 | 44% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 879 | 968 | 37% | 2019-07-16 | Tied |
| 959 | 1275 | 14% | 2019-03-15 | Won |
| 1216 | 1149 | 60% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2017-11-17 | Won |
| 968 | 879 | 63% | 2017-02-13 | Won |
| 1020 | 987 | 55% | 2016-09-01 | Lost |
| 1016 | 907 | 65% | 2016-04-10 | Lost |
| 927 | 1207 | 17% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 846 | 869 | 47% | 2015-02-03 | Lost |
| 999 | 973 | 54% | 2014-06-29 | Won |
| 1138 | 1164 | 46% | 2014-03-08 | Won |
| 1078 | 1020 | 58% | 2013-12-01 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1033.9 vs 1056.5 has a 46.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).