The Clearing
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (26 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 35
Defender wins (German): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1236 | 986 | 81% | 2025-02-11 | Won |
| 986 | 987 | 50% | 2025-02-06 | Lost |
| 1031 | 868 | 72% | 2025-01-15 | Won |
| 964 | 1028 | 41% | 2024-11-15 | Won |
| 1033 | 1001 | 55% | 2024-11-13 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1118 | 34% | 2024-03-22 | Lost |
| 970 | 1028 | 42% | 2024-03-04 | Won |
| 1082 | 1105 | 47% | 2023-12-28 | Lost |
| 1236 | 1044 | 75% | 2022-09-04 | Won |
| 753 | 1141 | 10% | 2022-08-16 | Lost |
| 1159 | 986 | 73% | 2022-01-09 | Won |
| 1030 | 1044 | 48% | 2021-08-22 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1163 | 52% | 2020-12-12 | Lost |
| 1005 | 769 | 80% | 2020-05-02 | Won |
| 916 | 1139 | 22% | 2019-10-23 | Lost |
| 979 | 1056 | 39% | 2019-10-11 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1026 | 50% | 2019-05-12 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1080 | 54% | 2018-10-07 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1005 | 61% | 2017-10-11 | Won |
| 915 | 1031 | 34% | 2016-06-24 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1212 | 27% | 2014-10-06 | Won |
| 957 | 1030 | 40% | 2014-01-11 | Lost |
| 969 | 1122 | 29% | 2013-09-27 | Won |
| 884 | 940 | 42% | 2013-06-20 | Won |
| 965 | 1036 | 40% | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1019.9 vs 1037.7 has a 47.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).