Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 55 (14 on the archive and 41 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 28
Defender wins (American): 27
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1183 | 1168 | 52% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
1006 | 1023 | 48% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
941 | 1019 | 39% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
1006 | 1049 | 44% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
954 | 954 | 50% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
992 | 850 | 69% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
998 | 890 | 65% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
849 | 1225 | 10% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
1171 | 1225 | 42% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
1095 | 1116 | 47% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
933 | 989 | 42% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
1058 | 967 | 63% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
989 | 1138 | 30% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
1034 | 1097 | 41% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1014.9 vs 1050.7 has a 44.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).