The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29
Attacker wins (Japanese): 14
Defender wins (Chinese): 15
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
981 | 982 | 50% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
981 | 982 | 50% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
982 | 981 | 50% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
954 | 1003 | 43% | 2022-09-17 | Lost |
1052 | 1060 | 49% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
1127 | 1102 | 54% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
1010 | 993 | 52% | 2021-01-31 | Lost |
1056 | 1007 | 57% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
733 | 881 | 30% | 2018-01-15 | Won |
1144 | 856 | 84% | 2017-11-03 | Won |
1050 | 1069 | 47% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
1126 | 1003 | 67% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
881 | 880 | 50% | 2016-10-26 | Won |
881 | 1003 | 33% | 2016-10-11 | Lost |
1225 | 849 | 90% | 2016-04-25 | Won |
1311 | 1141 | 73% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
917 | 1016 | 36% | 2015-11-28 | Won |
1026 | 1211 | 26% | 2014-12-28 | Lost |
1002 | 1055 | 42% | 2014-10-09 | Won |
1003 | 1032 | 46% | 2014-07-09 | Lost |
943 | 917 | 54% | 2014-04-02 | Lost |
1105 | 985 | 67% | 2014-01-28 | Lost |
1094 | 1009 | 62% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
965 | 1003 | 45% | 2013-06-22 | Lost |
984 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-05-15 | Won |
1145 | 1094 | 57% | 2013-04-23 | Won |
938 | 1066 | 32% | 2013-03-25 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1022.8 vs 1008.9 has a 52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).