The Black Ravens are Flying
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 84 (22 on the archive and 62 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 42
Defender wins (German (SS) / Hungarian ): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1007 | 1037 | 46% | 2025-04-19 | Won |
| 1072 | 1131 | 42% | 2023-05-13 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1023 | 50% | 2022-06-19 | Won |
| 963 | 1063 | 36% | 2022-05-15 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1179 | 44% | 2019-03-28 | Lost |
| 985 | 940 | 56% | 2018-05-06 | Lost |
| 1338 | 1264 | 60% | 2017-10-02 | Lost |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2017-07-18 | Won |
| 1075 | 1058 | 52% | 2017-04-21 | Won |
| 1134 | 1006 | 68% | 2015-01-07 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1064 | 48% | 2014-06-09 | Won |
| 982 | 1218 | 20% | 2014-04-28 | Lost |
| 917 | 1071 | 29% | 2014-02-24 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1114 | 52% | 2013-09-15 | Won |
| 1060 | 1010 | 57% | 2013-02-14 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1269 | 35% | 2013-01-26 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1060 | 50% | 2013-01-26 | Won |
| 1140 | 1276 | 31% | 2012-10-04 | Lost |
| 1190 | 969 | 78% | 2012-06-22 | Lost |
| 1343 | 1094 | 81% | 2012-06-22 | Won |
| 1034 | 943 | 63% | 2012-03-09 | Won |
| 884 | 748 | 69% | 2012-01-14 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1075 vs 1068.7 has a 50.92% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).