Messervy's Men
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (British): 11
Defender wins (Italian): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1058 | 1058 | 50% | 2025-11-30 | Won |
| 1047 | 1419 | 11% | 2023-06-10 | Lost |
| 1340 | 1090 | 81% | 2022-11-23 | Won |
| 990 | 945 | 56% | 2022-10-27 | Won |
| 1216 | 1023 | 75% | 2022-07-09 | Lost |
| 954 | 954 | 50% | 2022-02-12 | Won |
| 958 | 958 | 50% | 2021-11-01 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1075 | 40% | 2020-12-04 | Won |
| 1202 | 1080 | 67% | 2020-06-14 | Won |
| 861 | 1167 | 15% | 2019-11-03 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1041 | 48% | 2017-08-20 | Lost |
| 1109 | 945 | 72% | 2017-07-29 | Won |
| 1041 | 1085 | 44% | 2017-07-29 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1072 | 41% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1035 | 1066 | 46% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 956 | 1003 | 43% | 2013-08-18 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2013-06-30 | Lost |
| 918 | 1078 | 28% | 2012-06-17 | Won |
| 879 | 1011 | 32% | 2011-10-08 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1078 | 51% | 2011-08-08 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1109 | 48% | 2011-05-14 | Lost |
| 894 | 936 | 44% | 2011-03-24 | Lost |
| 749 | 879 | 32% | 2011-03-11 | Won |
| 952 | 1052 | 36% | 2011-02-05 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1019.7 vs 1050.5 has a 45.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).