The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 23
Attacker wins (Russian): 11
Defender wins (German): 12
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1023 | 1083 | 41% | 2025-11-21 | Lost |
| 861 | 1069 | 23% | 2025-11-21 | Lost |
| 980 | 1072 | 37% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 1088 | 983 | 65% | 2019-03-02 | Won |
| 983 | 1050 | 40% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1060 | 54% | 2014-10-18 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1169 | 58% | 2014-08-09 | Won |
| 1056 | 1059 | 50% | 2012-10-05 | Won |
| 1220 | 955 | 82% | 2012-04-21 | Won |
| 986 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-01-21 | Won |
| 1131 | 1195 | 41% | 2011-11-05 | Lost |
| 986 | 1056 | 40% | 2011-10-07 | Lost |
| 1211 | 1140 | 60% | 2011-10-05 | Lost |
| 968 | 1085 | 34% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 1234 | 894 | 88% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1047 | 1429 | 10% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1190 | 1234 | 44% | 2011-01-20 | Won |
| 1061 | 1167 | 35% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
| 1190 | 955 | 79% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1092 | 51% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1140 | 1059 | 61% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1060 | 964 | 63% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1036 | 66% | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1086.1 vs 1078.5 has a 51.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).