The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 80 (14 on the archive and 66 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 39
Defender wins (German): 41
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
990 | 1037 | 43% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
896 | 1087 | 25% | 2019-03-02 | Won |
1087 | 1118 | 46% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
1225 | 1171 | 58% | 2014-08-09 | Won |
1327 | 1010 | 86% | 2012-04-21 | Won |
987 | 999 | 48% | 2012-01-21 | Won |
1144 | 1204 | 41% | 2011-11-05 | Lost |
1127 | 1062 | 59% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
1307 | 884 | 92% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
1042 | 1360 | 14% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
1190 | 1307 | 34% | 2011-01-20 | Won |
904 | 925 | 47% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
1176 | 970 | 77% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
1090 | 1092 | 50% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1106.6 vs 1087.6 has a 52.73% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).