The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 14
Attacker wins (Russian): 9
Defender wins (German): 5
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
990 | 1058 | 40% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
894 | 1097 | 24% | 2019-03-02 | Won |
1097 | 1118 | 47% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
1225 | 1171 | 58% | 2014-08-09 | Won |
1330 | 934 | 91% | 2012-04-21 | Won |
987 | 999 | 48% | 2012-01-21 | Won |
1171 | 1014 | 71% | 2011-11-05 | Lost |
1102 | 1047 | 58% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
1323 | 883 | 93% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
1042 | 1398 | 11% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
1190 | 1323 | 32% | 2011-01-20 | Won |
1018 | 1027 | 49% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
1214 | 970 | 80% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
1091 | 1093 | 50% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1119.6 vs 1080.9 has a 55.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).