Taking Heads
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 179 (55 on the archive and 124 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 90
Defender wins (American): 89
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 947 | 947 | 50% | 2026-01-04 | Won |
| 1075 | 1191 | 34% | 2025-03-15 | Lost |
| 1023 | 955 | 60% | 2025-03-15 | Lost |
| 1214 | 1206 | 51% | 2025-03-15 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1018 | 67% | 2024-10-06 | Won |
| 843 | 1080 | 20% | 2024-09-30 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1092 | 40% | 2024-09-28 | Lost |
| 999 | 995 | 51% | 2024-09-10 | Lost |
| 988 | 1008 | 47% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 948 | 938 | 51% | 2022-11-04 | Won |
| 983 | 985 | 50% | 2022-07-16 | Won |
| 1108 | 1084 | 53% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1055 | 983 | 60% | 2021-11-27 | Lost |
| 967 | 1063 | 37% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 884 | 971 | 38% | 2021-03-21 | Lost |
| 967 | 1035 | 40% | 2020-09-24 | Lost |
| 1160 | 1125 | 55% | 2020-08-08 | Won |
| 878 | 1102 | 22% | 2020-04-03 | Lost |
| 963 | 1023 | 41% | 2020-03-29 | Lost |
| 955 | 1206 | 19% | 2020-03-22 | Lost |
| 1191 | 991 | 76% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 1073 | 1111 | 45% | 2018-11-03 | Won |
| 1064 | 826 | 80% | 2018-10-30 | Won |
| 963 | 1134 | 27% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1111 | 57% | 2018-07-03 | Lost |
| 864 | 996 | 32% | 2018-06-22 | Won |
| 1216 | 1140 | 61% | 2018-06-10 | Lost |
| 1131 | 938 | 75% | 2018-05-10 | Won |
| 983 | 1139 | 29% | 2018-01-01 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-07-09 | Won |
| 970 | 1064 | 37% | 2017-03-26 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1153 | 47% | 2016-12-29 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1303 | 44% | 2016-08-09 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1138 | 67% | 2016-07-30 | Won |
| 850 | 873 | 47% | 2015-03-30 | Lost |
| 976 | 1134 | 29% | 2014-06-14 | Won |
| 1000 | 1150 | 30% | 2014-03-04 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2014-01-27 | Won |
| 1234 | 1064 | 73% | 2013-04-14 | Lost |
| 1234 | 1064 | 73% | 2013-03-10 | Lost |
| 884 | 766 | 66% | 2012-12-01 | Won |
| 1133 | 1028 | 65% | 2011-10-08 | Won |
| 1220 | 1096 | 67% | 2011-07-29 | Won |
| 1019 | 864 | 71% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 1085 | 1062 | 53% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 996 | 1192 | 24% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 1203 | 1140 | 59% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1140 | 1019 | 67% | 2011-02-10 | Won |
| 1085 | 968 | 66% | 2011-01-20 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1167 | 35% | 2010-08-15 | Won |
| 1223 | 1120 | 64% | 2010-08-13 | Won |
| 1058 | 1017 | 56% | 2010-05-28 | Won |
| 919 | 1040 | 33% | 2010-03-12 | Won |
Attacking (28 wins) average ELOs: 1055.7 vs 1054.8 has a 50.14% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).