Farmyard Affray
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (20 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 25
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 2026-08-14 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 1057 | 65% | 2026-06-28 | | Won |
| 976 | 999 | 47% | 2026-06-28 | | Won |
| 1029 | 959 | 60% | 2026-06-28 | | Won |
| 939 | 1160 | 22% | 2026-06-28 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1156 | 24% | 2025-11-10 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1156 | 24% | 2025-11-10 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1032 | 50% | 2025-06-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 952 | 57% | 2025-03-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2024-11-14 | | Won |
| 999 | 1029 | 46% | 2024-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1099 | 976 | 67% | 2024-09-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2024-06-23 | | Won |
| 1063 | 1000 | 59% | 2022-10-01 | | Won |
| 939 | 1211 | 17% | 2018-08-20 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1075 | 61% | 2013-10-29 | | Won |
| 1025 | 1000 | 54% | 2012-05-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2009-03-11 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2008-10-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1070 | 40% | | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1023.1 vs 1051.2 has a 45.96% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).