The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 101 (23 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 46
Defender wins (Chinese): 55
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1183 | 1194 | 48% | 2023-04-05 | Lost |
964 | 950 | 52% | 2023-01-17 | Lost |
1144 | 950 | 75% | 2020-08-13 | Won |
992 | 988 | 51% | 2019-12-31 | Lost |
1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2018-06-22 | Lost |
1327 | 1197 | 68% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
1360 | 1307 | 58% | 2015-01-21 | Won |
1060 | 1049 | 52% | 2014-06-28 | Lost |
1116 | 1095 | 53% | 2012-05-10 | Won |
1131 | 1131 | 50% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
1327 | 1058 | 82% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
991 | 936 | 58% | 2011-07-30 | Lost |
941 | 937 | 51% | 2011-06-03 | Won |
1049 | 1131 | 38% | 2011-02-12 | Lost |
937 | 1119 | 26% | 2011-02-03 | Lost |
937 | 982 | 44% | 2011-01-29 | Lost |
1087 | 987 | 64% | 2010-09-19 | Won |
987 | 1087 | 36% | 2010-01-01 | Lost |
925 | 978 | 42% | 2009-09-23 | Won |
925 | 904 | 53% | 2009-05-23 | Lost |
1083 | 959 | 67% | 2008-10-01 | Lost |
982 | 1142 | 28% | 2008-01-26 | Lost |
992 | 926 | 59% | 2007-12-02 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1069.5 vs 1050.3 has a 52.76% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).