The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 114 (36 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 53
Defender wins (Chinese): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1072 | 1072 | 50% | 2025-09-11 | Won |
| 1002 | 961 | 56% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 1002 | 961 | 56% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 961 | 1002 | 44% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 1076 | 1076 | 50% | 2023-04-05 | Lost |
| 954 | 938 | 52% | 2023-01-17 | Lost |
| 1131 | 938 | 75% | 2020-08-13 | Won |
| 975 | 1038 | 41% | 2019-12-31 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2018-06-22 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1162 | 59% | 2017-03-20 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1338 | 40% | 2016-06-09 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1191 | 54% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 1430 | 1234 | 76% | 2015-01-21 | Won |
| 1061 | 1072 | 48% | 2014-06-28 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1111 | 51% | 2012-05-10 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1167 | 58% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 943 | 921 | 53% | 2011-07-30 | Lost |
| 940 | 936 | 51% | 2011-06-03 | Won |
| 1072 | 1133 | 41% | 2011-02-12 | Lost |
| 936 | 1171 | 21% | 2011-02-03 | Lost |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2011-01-29 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1303 | 22% | 2010-10-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 927 | 58% | 2010-09-19 | Won |
| 1053 | 1023 | 54% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
| 1150 | 1264 | 34% | 2010-05-28 | Lost |
| 927 | 983 | 42% | 2010-01-01 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1175 | 34% | 2009-09-25 | Lost |
| 1167 | 1000 | 72% | 2009-09-23 | Won |
| 1167 | 1061 | 65% | 2009-05-23 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1215 | 24% | 2008-10-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1160 | 27% | 2008-01-26 | Lost |
| 982 | 914 | 60% | 2007-12-02 | Won |
| 1061 | 1049 | 52% | 2007-10-01 | Won |
| 1140 | 1153 | 48% | 2007-09-30 | Won |
| 1036 | 1118 | 38% | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1072.2 vs 1082.9 has a 48.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).