The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 25
Attacker wins (Japanese): 10
Defender wins (Chinese): 15
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1118 | 1118 | 50% | 2023-04-05 | Lost |
964 | 1055 | 37% | 2023-01-17 | Lost |
1183 | 1055 | 68% | 2020-08-13 | Won |
1000 | 991 | 51% | 2019-12-31 | Lost |
1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2018-06-22 | Lost |
1289 | 1123 | 72% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
1397 | 1307 | 63% | 2015-01-21 | Won |
1062 | 1049 | 52% | 2014-06-28 | Lost |
1112 | 1107 | 51% | 2012-05-10 | Won |
1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
1289 | 1072 | 78% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
964 | 936 | 54% | 2011-07-30 | Lost |
941 | 937 | 51% | 2011-06-03 | Won |
1049 | 1133 | 38% | 2011-02-12 | Lost |
937 | 1131 | 25% | 2011-02-03 | Lost |
937 | 982 | 44% | 2011-01-29 | Lost |
1138 | 937 | 76% | 2010-09-19 | Won |
1029 | 1068 | 44% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
937 | 1138 | 24% | 2010-01-01 | Lost |
1135 | 982 | 71% | 2009-09-23 | Won |
1135 | 997 | 69% | 2009-05-23 | Lost |
1087 | 958 | 68% | 2008-10-01 | Lost |
983 | 1097 | 34% | 2008-01-26 | Lost |
992 | 926 | 59% | 2007-12-02 | Won |
1102 | 1118 | 48% | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1081 vs 1058.2 has a 53.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).