The Bears of St. Denis
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 35 (8 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 22
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1200 | 1000 | 76% | 2026-08-21 | | Won |
| 1021 | 1098 | 39% | 2026-08-18 | | Lost |
| 1192 | 1051 | 69% | 2026-08-17 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2021-08-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2019-07-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2009-10-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1103 | 36% | 2009-06-04 | | Lost |
| 1025 | 1000 | 54% | 2008-09-29 | | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1074.6 vs 1056.4 has a 52.62% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).