The Chernichivo Shuffle
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 88 (18 on the archive and 70 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 48
Defender wins (German (SS)): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 983 | 1028 | 44% | 2023-08-12 | Won |
| 988 | 956 | 55% | 2023-08-12 | Won |
| 1072 | 1175 | 36% | 2023-05-08 | Won |
| 941 | 923 | 53% | 2023-04-24 | Won |
| 1429 | 974 | 93% | 2021-12-19 | Won |
| 985 | 1120 | 31% | 2021-10-09 | Lost |
| 993 | 985 | 51% | 2020-11-29 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1206 | 27% | 2018-06-18 | Won |
| 1051 | 1234 | 26% | 2017-09-07 | Won |
| 1129 | 1134 | 49% | 2016-10-05 | Lost |
| 1085 | 968 | 66% | 2009-01-12 | Won |
| 1031 | 1167 | 31% | 2007-10-27 | Won |
| 1167 | 1017 | 70% | 2007-05-27 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1175 | 47% | 2007-01-29 | Won |
| 1151 | 1061 | 63% | 2006-08-06 | Lost |
| 1209 | 1023 | 74% | 2006-04-22 | Won |
| 1303 | 1159 | 70% | 2005-08-09 | Won |
| 1060 | 1343 | 16% | 2004-12-04 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1097.6 vs 1091.6 has a 50.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).