Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 61 (17 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 33
Defender wins (American): 28
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 966 | 1033 | 40% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 1011 | 995 | 52% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 1043 | 1025 | 53% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 993 | 1066 | 40% | 2018-03-07 | Won |
| 1032 | 1024 | 51% | 2015-06-20 | Lost |
| 1302 | 1080 | 78% | 2015-03-31 | Won |
| 1061 | 1112 | 43% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 1098 | 34% | 2014-01-30 | Lost |
| 966 | 1090 | 33% | 2013-01-12 | Lost |
| 1195 | 1136 | 58% | 2012-01-26 | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 994 | 1024 | 46% | 2009-01-01 | Won |
| 1050 | 1000 | 57% | 2008-09-11 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1148 | 43% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 1161 | 1147 | 52% | 2006-01-28 | Won |
| 1160 | 982 | 74% | 2005-10-20 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1071.2 vs 1060 has a 51.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).