Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (24 on the archive and 48 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 37
Defender wins (American): 35
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 982 | 1182 | 24% | 2026-07-03 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 964 | 81% | 2025-09-24 | | Won |
| 966 | 1033 | 40% | 2023-02-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2022-05-15 | | Won |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2022-05-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1071 | 40% | 2018-03-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2015-06-20 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1120 | 64% | 2015-03-31 | | Won |
| 1044 | 1000 | 56% | 2015-03-07 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1101 | 34% | 2014-01-30 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1088 | 33% | 2013-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1187 | 1126 | 59% | 2012-01-26 | | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-05-14 | | Won |
| 992 | 1056 | 41% | 2009-01-01 | | Won |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2008-09-11 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2008-07-09 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1089 | 57% | 2006-11-06 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 767 | 90% | 2006-04-24 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1347 | 14% | 2006-04-14 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2006-04-01 | | Won |
| 1156 | 1122 | 55% | 2006-01-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2005-10-21 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2005-10-20 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1069.1 vs 1048.8 has a 52.92% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).