Simple Equation
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 296 (125 on the archive and 171 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 176
Defender wins (German): 113
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 2
Defender wins (German): 0
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|---|---|---|---|
1004 | 1003 | 50% | 2024-07-29 | Won |
1003 | 1237 | 21% | 2024-07-18 | Lost |
999 | 999 | 50% | 2024-05-04 | Won |
1003 | 1004 | 50% | 2024-03-17 | Won |
1001 | 1001 | 50% | 2024-02-02 | Lost |
964 | 1067 | 36% | 2024-01-25 | Won |
1067 | 964 | 64% | 2024-01-04 | Lost |
964 | 1043 | 39% | 2023-12-27 | Won |
1003 | 1003 | 50% | 2023-10-04 | Lost |
1036 | 1043 | 49% | 2023-08-30 | Lost |
1003 | 1014 | 48% | 2023-06-30 | Won |
1114 | 1114 | 50% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
1237 | 1221 | 52% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
1113 | 1003 | 65% | 2023-02-25 | Lost |
1074 | 1114 | 44% | 2023-02-15 | Lost |
1064 | 1072 | 49% | 2023-02-10 | Won |
1067 | 1003 | 59% | 2023-01-26 | Won |
1015 | 1221 | 23% | 2022-11-03 | Lost |
954 | 1058 | 35% | 2022-08-21 | Won |
989 | 1030 | 44% | 2022-08-17 | Won |
1011 | 1037 | 46% | 2022-07-13 | Won |
989 | 949 | 56% | 2022-06-15 | Won |
1078 | 1003 | 61% | 2022-04-10 | Won |
954 | 979 | 46% | 2022-03-09 | Won |
1141 | 989 | 71% | 2022-02-10 | Won |
1049 | 1141 | 37% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
1057 | 954 | 64% | 2021-12-06 | Won |
974 | 1143 | 27% | 2021-08-07 | Won |
954 | 999 | 44% | 2021-07-17 | Lost |
1056 | 1034 | 53% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
1034 | 954 | 61% | 2021-05-30 | Won |
1141 | 964 | 73% | 2021-05-16 | Won |
1027 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-04-20 | Won |
1122 | 1146 | 47% | 2021-02-25 | Won |
1052 | 1047 | 51% | 2021-02-20 | Lost |
1047 | 993 | 58% | 2021-02-20 | Won |
1047 | 993 | 58% | 2021-02-02 | Lost |
1027 | 1030 | 50% | 2021-01-22 | Won |
986 | 929 | 58% | 2020-11-29 | Won |
1006 | 1141 | 31% | 2020-11-12 | Lost |
954 | 985 | 46% | 2020-09-20 | Lost |
964 | 964 | 50% | 2020-08-06 | Lost |
1143 | 954 | 75% | 2020-07-20 | Won |
954 | 898 | 58% | 2020-07-12 | Won |
954 | 1211 | 19% | 2020-05-24 | Lost |
1122 | 966 | 71% | 2020-04-23 | Won |
992 | 1170 | 26% | 2020-04-03 | Won |
926 | 916 | 51% | 2020-04-02 | Won |
999 | 982 | 52% | 2019-12-26 | Won |
919 | 892 | 54% | 2019-12-10 | Lost |
1053 | 1159 | 35% | 2019-11-21 | Won |
964 | 1073 | 35% | 2019-10-03 | Won |
964 | 1012 | 43% | 2019-09-25 | Lost |
1431 | 1427 | 51% | 2019-09-07 | Won |
1427 | 1431 | 49% | 2019-09-07 | Lost |
1190 | 1431 | 20% | 2019-08-31 | Lost |
1009 | 989 | 53% | 2019-08-08 | Won |
1039 | 1003 | 55% | 2019-07-27 | Won |
979 | 1038 | 42% | 2019-06-29 | Lost |
1039 | 1003 | 55% | 2019-06-08 | Won |
1144 | 943 | 76% | 2019-05-29 | Won |
1200 | 1207 | 49% | 2019-05-19 | Lost |
1207 | 1200 | 51% | 2019-05-04 | Won |
1000 | 994 | 51% | 2019-04-04 | Won |
954 | 956 | 50% | 2019-03-26 | Won |
977 | 1045 | 40% | 2019-01-24 | Tied |
881 | 1003 | 33% | 2019-01-20 | Lost |
972 | 1032 | 41% | 2018-12-08 | Won |
1084 | 1012 | 60% | 2018-11-15 | Lost |
1082 | 1142 | 41% | 2018-08-23 | Lost |
1063 | 964 | 64% | 2018-08-05 | Lost |
1014 | 990 | 53% | 2017-11-03 | Lost |
992 | 1079 | 38% | 2017-09-08 | Lost |
1032 | 911 | 67% | 2017-09-07 | Won |
1032 | 1029 | 50% | 2017-08-21 | Won |
862 | 882 | 47% | 2017-05-21 | Won |
1189 | 1128 | 59% | 2017-05-13 | Won |
1108 | 1101 | 51% | 2017-04-26 | Won |
984 | 1043 | 42% | 2017-03-11 | Won |
1016 | 1002 | 52% | 2017-02-25 | Won |
1000 | 1003 | 50% | 2017-01-30 | Lost |
1109 | 893 | 78% | 2016-11-28 | Won |
1003 | 881 | 67% | 2016-07-24 | Tied |
895 | 964 | 40% | 2016-06-01 | Lost |
961 | 964 | 50% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
1178 | 1431 | 19% | 2015-10-04 | Won |
1015 | 931 | 62% | 2015-08-10 | Won |
1127 | 1113 | 52% | 2015-08-08 | Tied |
843 | 847 | 49% | 2014-06-22 | Lost |
981 | 981 | 50% | 2014-01-11 | Lost |
980 | 1003 | 47% | 2012-08-27 | Lost |
1003 | 1003 | 50% | 2012-07-18 | Won |
1019 | 1035 | 48% | 2012-04-27 | Won |
1039 | 1069 | 46% | 2011-12-28 | Lost |
1027 | 1030 | 50% | 2011-12-18 | Won |
1047 | 1047 | 50% | 2011-09-03 | Won |
1006 | 986 | 53% | 2011-07-10 | Won |
1139 | 1119 | 53% | 2010-11-20 | Lost |
990 | 1014 | 47% | 2010-05-12 | Lost |
1216 | 993 | 78% | 2010-04-21 | Won |
1040 | 1216 | 27% | 2010-03-28 | Won |
936 | 936 | 50% | 2009-11-24 | Won |
1094 | 944 | 70% | 2009-09-11 | Lost |
1135 | 1228 | 37% | 2009-09-01 | Won |
1119 | 1139 | 47% | 2009-08-09 | Won |
946 | 952 | 49% | 2009-05-25 | Won |
914 | 1017 | 36% | 2009-01-24 | Won |
1003 | 1000 | 50% | 2008-10-07 | Lost |
946 | 1019 | 40% | 2008-02-14 | Lost |
1023 | 1003 | 53% | 2008-01-15 | Lost |
1056 | 1056 | 50% | 2008-01-01 | Won |
1056 | 1056 | 50% | 2008-01-01 | Won |
1056 | 1056 | 50% | 2008-01-01 | Won |
1012 | 1006 | 51% | 2007-08-15 | Won |
954 | 1000 | 43% | 2007-02-17 | Won |
1075 | 1075 | 50% | 2007-01-17 | Won |
1012 | 1026 | 48% | 2007-01-13 | Lost |
1094 | 984 | 65% | 2006-05-27 | Won |
832 | 1117 | 16% | 2006-04-18 | Lost |
1010 | 943 | 60% | 2006-02-14 | Lost |
1097 | 1097 | 50% | 2006-01-31 | Won |
832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-01-21 | Lost |
1037 | 1111 | 40% | 2004-11-11 | Won |
887 | 978 | 37% | 2004-09-01 | Lost |
1074 | 1086 | 48% | 2004-08-08 | Won |
Attacking (75 wins) average ELOs: 1032.5 vs 1040.1 has a 48.9% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).