Simple Equation
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 301 (130 on the archive and 171 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 179
Defender wins (German): 115
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 2
Defender wins (German): 0
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 988 | 1004 | 48% | 2025-03-06 | Won |
| 1006 | 948 | 58% | 2024-07-29 | Won |
| 948 | 1266 | 14% | 2024-07-18 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1015 | 50% | 2024-05-04 | Won |
| 1033 | 1004 | 54% | 2024-03-17 | Won |
| 1001 | 1001 | 50% | 2024-02-02 | Lost |
| 927 | 1060 | 32% | 2024-01-25 | Won |
| 1060 | 927 | 68% | 2024-01-04 | Lost |
| 927 | 1034 | 35% | 2023-12-27 | Won |
| 1036 | 948 | 62% | 2023-10-04 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1034 | 50% | 2023-08-30 | Lost |
| 1040 | 980 | 59% | 2023-06-30 | Won |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 1266 | 1218 | 57% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1113 | 948 | 72% | 2023-02-25 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1152 | 39% | 2023-02-15 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1072 | 56% | 2023-02-10 | Won |
| 1067 | 948 | 66% | 2023-01-26 | Won |
| 1015 | 1218 | 24% | 2022-11-03 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1059 | 43% | 2022-08-21 | Won |
| 969 | 1030 | 41% | 2022-08-17 | Won |
| 996 | 1037 | 44% | 2022-07-13 | Won |
| 969 | 947 | 53% | 2022-06-15 | Won |
| 1160 | 948 | 77% | 2022-04-10 | Won |
| 1010 | 1022 | 48% | 2022-03-09 | Won |
| 1141 | 989 | 71% | 2022-02-10 | Won |
| 1049 | 1141 | 37% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1010 | 60% | 2021-12-06 | Won |
| 1143 | 1144 | 50% | 2021-08-07 | Won |
| 1010 | 999 | 52% | 2021-07-17 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1034 | 53% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1010 | 53% | 2021-05-30 | Won |
| 1155 | 964 | 75% | 2021-05-16 | Won |
| 1027 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-04-20 | Won |
| 1108 | 1150 | 44% | 2021-02-25 | Won |
| 1052 | 1029 | 53% | 2021-02-20 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2021-02-20 | Won |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2021-02-02 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1030 | 50% | 2021-01-22 | Won |
| 987 | 932 | 58% | 2020-11-29 | Won |
| 1006 | 1155 | 30% | 2020-11-12 | Lost |
| 1010 | 985 | 54% | 2020-09-20 | Lost |
| 940 | 927 | 52% | 2020-08-06 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1010 | 68% | 2020-07-20 | Won |
| 1010 | 898 | 66% | 2020-07-12 | Won |
| 1029 | 1096 | 40% | 2020-05-28 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1203 | 25% | 2020-05-24 | Lost |
| 1108 | 967 | 69% | 2020-04-23 | Won |
| 992 | 1163 | 27% | 2020-04-03 | Won |
| 926 | 916 | 51% | 2020-04-02 | Won |
| 999 | 905 | 63% | 2019-12-26 | Won |
| 924 | 864 | 59% | 2019-12-10 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1173 | 33% | 2019-11-21 | Won |
| 927 | 1072 | 30% | 2019-10-03 | Won |
| 927 | 928 | 50% | 2019-09-25 | Lost |
| 1431 | 1427 | 51% | 2019-09-07 | Won |
| 1427 | 1431 | 49% | 2019-09-07 | Lost |
| 1190 | 1431 | 20% | 2019-08-31 | Lost |
| 1009 | 989 | 53% | 2019-08-08 | Won |
| 1051 | 948 | 64% | 2019-07-27 | Won |
| 976 | 1037 | 41% | 2019-06-29 | Lost |
| 1051 | 948 | 64% | 2019-06-08 | Won |
| 1157 | 944 | 77% | 2019-05-29 | Won |
| 1201 | 1208 | 49% | 2019-05-19 | Lost |
| 1208 | 1201 | 51% | 2019-05-04 | Won |
| 1000 | 1004 | 49% | 2019-04-04 | Won |
| 954 | 956 | 50% | 2019-03-26 | Won |
| 977 | 1039 | 41% | 2019-01-24 | Tied |
| 877 | 948 | 40% | 2019-01-20 | Lost |
| 972 | 1037 | 41% | 2018-12-08 | Won |
| 1069 | 1006 | 59% | 2018-11-15 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1142 | 41% | 2018-08-23 | Lost |
| 1063 | 927 | 69% | 2018-08-05 | Lost |
| 980 | 983 | 50% | 2017-11-03 | Lost |
| 992 | 1072 | 39% | 2017-09-08 | Lost |
| 1037 | 911 | 67% | 2017-09-07 | Won |
| 1037 | 1029 | 51% | 2017-08-21 | Won |
| 862 | 881 | 47% | 2017-05-21 | Won |
| 1115 | 1115 | 50% | 2017-05-13 | Won |
| 1097 | 1101 | 49% | 2017-04-26 | Won |
| 984 | 1084 | 36% | 2017-03-11 | Won |
| 1014 | 1001 | 52% | 2017-02-25 | Won |
| 1002 | 948 | 58% | 2017-01-30 | Lost |
| 1205 | 1143 | 59% | 2016-12-19 | Won |
| 1195 | 893 | 85% | 2016-11-28 | Won |
| 948 | 877 | 60% | 2016-07-24 | Tied |
| 884 | 927 | 44% | 2016-06-01 | Lost |
| 960 | 927 | 55% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
| 1178 | 1431 | 19% | 2015-10-04 | Won |
| 1015 | 931 | 62% | 2015-08-10 | Won |
| 1127 | 1113 | 52% | 2015-08-08 | Tied |
| 1096 | 972 | 67% | 2015-03-21 | Won |
| 1147 | 1205 | 42% | 2014-09-15 | Lost |
| 845 | 847 | 50% | 2014-06-22 | Lost |
| 981 | 981 | 50% | 2014-01-11 | Lost |
| 980 | 948 | 55% | 2012-08-27 | Lost |
| 1036 | 948 | 62% | 2012-07-18 | Won |
| 1020 | 1038 | 47% | 2012-04-27 | Won |
| 1041 | 1024 | 52% | 2011-12-28 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1030 | 50% | 2011-12-18 | Won |
| 1047 | 1047 | 50% | 2011-09-03 | Won |
| 1006 | 986 | 53% | 2011-07-10 | Won |
| 1137 | 1125 | 52% | 2010-11-20 | Lost |
| 983 | 980 | 50% | 2010-05-12 | Lost |
| 1216 | 993 | 78% | 2010-04-21 | Won |
| 1039 | 1216 | 27% | 2010-03-28 | Won |
| 936 | 936 | 50% | 2009-11-24 | Won |
| 1093 | 944 | 70% | 2009-09-11 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1228 | 37% | 2009-09-01 | Won |
| 1125 | 1137 | 48% | 2009-08-09 | Won |
| 946 | 951 | 49% | 2009-05-25 | Won |
| 913 | 1017 | 35% | 2009-01-24 | Won |
| 1004 | 1002 | 50% | 2008-10-07 | Lost |
| 946 | 1019 | 40% | 2008-02-14 | Lost |
| 1025 | 948 | 61% | 2008-01-15 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1056 | 50% | 2008-01-01 | Won |
| 1056 | 1056 | 50% | 2008-01-01 | Won |
| 1056 | 1056 | 50% | 2008-01-01 | Won |
| 1012 | 1006 | 51% | 2007-08-15 | Won |
| 955 | 1002 | 43% | 2007-02-17 | Won |
| 1161 | 1142 | 53% | 2007-01-17 | Won |
| 1006 | 1026 | 47% | 2007-01-13 | Lost |
| 1093 | 984 | 65% | 2006-05-27 | Won |
| 832 | 1151 | 14% | 2006-04-18 | Lost |
| 1010 | 943 | 60% | 2006-02-14 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 2006-01-31 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-01-21 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1111 | 40% | 2004-11-11 | Won |
| 889 | 978 | 37% | 2004-09-01 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1086 | 52% | 2004-08-08 | Won |
Attacking (78 wins) average ELOs: 1039.3 vs 1036.4 has a 50.42% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).