War of the Rats
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 220
Attacker wins (German): 106
Defender wins (Russian): 108
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 3
Attacker wins (German): 2
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1134 | 1152 | 47% | 2024-11-06 | Lost |
| 1006 | 948 | 58% | 2024-08-19 | Lost |
| 1266 | 948 | 86% | 2024-07-02 | Won |
| 1028 | 1028 | 50% | 2024-02-11 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1016 | 52% | 2024-01-19 | Lost |
| 927 | 1060 | 32% | 2023-12-28 | Won |
| 1034 | 927 | 65% | 2023-12-26 | Lost |
| 1031 | 927 | 65% | 2023-12-09 | Lost |
| 886 | 1152 | 18% | 2023-10-25 | Won |
| 1034 | 1036 | 50% | 2023-08-29 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2023-04-02 | Won |
| 1266 | 1218 | 57% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 1113 | 948 | 72% | 2023-02-18 | Lost |
| 1067 | 948 | 66% | 2023-02-10 | Won |
| 948 | 1115 | 28% | 2023-01-29 | Lost |
| 984 | 984 | 50% | 2023-01-28 | Lost |
| 984 | 984 | 50% | 2023-01-28 | Lost |
| 948 | 1067 | 34% | 2023-01-26 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1074 | 61% | 2023-01-17 | Lost |
| 969 | 1042 | 40% | 2022-11-12 | Won |
| 856 | 996 | 31% | 2022-10-15 | Won |
| 1218 | 1015 | 76% | 2022-10-13 | Won |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2022-10-08 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1218 | 24% | 2022-09-25 | Won |
| 1030 | 1043 | 48% | 2022-07-07 | Won |
| 969 | 947 | 53% | 2022-06-04 | Won |
| 1037 | 996 | 56% | 2022-05-25 | Lost |
| 969 | 1031 | 41% | 2022-04-13 | Lost |
| 969 | 1032 | 41% | 2022-04-08 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1218 | 27% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 861 | 856 | 51% | 2022-03-13 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1142 | 50% | 2022-03-13 | Lost |
| 1008 | 871 | 69% | 2022-03-12 | Won |
| 1003 | 1010 | 49% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1141 | 37% | 2021-12-21 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1141 | 37% | 2021-12-20 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1010 | 60% | 2021-11-23 | Won |
| 948 | 979 | 46% | 2021-11-18 | Lost |
| 1047 | 845 | 76% | 2021-10-22 | Won |
| 877 | 948 | 40% | 2021-09-07 | Tied |
| 1056 | 1056 | 50% | 2021-09-03 | Lost |
| 927 | 1015 | 38% | 2021-08-29 | Won |
| 1056 | 1056 | 50% | 2021-08-21 | Won |
| 1011 | 894 | 66% | 2021-08-15 | Won |
| 845 | 974 | 32% | 2021-08-04 | Won |
| 1144 | 1066 | 61% | 2021-07-17 | Lost |
| 984 | 984 | 50% | 2021-07-04 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1029 | 47% | 2021-06-05 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2021-05-27 | Lost |
| 1155 | 964 | 75% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1010 | 1078 | 40% | 2021-03-29 | Won |
| 1141 | 1427 | 16% | 2021-03-12 | Won |
| 984 | 1006 | 47% | 2021-02-25 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-02-09 | Won |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2021-02-01 | Won |
| 1030 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-01-12 | Won |
| 1030 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-01-09 | Lost |
| 1082 | 971 | 65% | 2020-12-20 | Won |
| 1002 | 908 | 63% | 2020-11-15 | Tied |
| 1025 | 948 | 61% | 2020-10-31 | Lost |
| 1014 | 932 | 62% | 2020-10-25 | Lost |
| 999 | 932 | 60% | 2020-10-17 | Won |
| 944 | 953 | 49% | 2020-08-05 | Lost |
| 1034 | 951 | 62% | 2020-08-03 | Lost |
| 940 | 927 | 52% | 2020-07-25 | Won |
| 1003 | 1017 | 48% | 2020-07-07 | Lost |
| 1214 | 1005 | 77% | 2020-07-07 | Lost |
| 1010 | 898 | 66% | 2020-06-09 | Won |
| 985 | 1010 | 46% | 2020-05-27 | Lost |
| 1203 | 1010 | 75% | 2020-05-21 | Won |
| 1203 | 1010 | 75% | 2020-05-21 | Won |
| 1163 | 1053 | 65% | 2020-05-14 | Won |
| 924 | 1035 | 35% | 2020-03-23 | Won |
| 1065 | 996 | 60% | 2020-03-17 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1044 | 66% | 2020-03-10 | Won |
| 1126 | 1163 | 45% | 2020-03-06 | Won |
| 996 | 1036 | 44% | 2020-02-26 | Lost |
| 923 | 912 | 52% | 2020-02-23 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1029 | 52% | 2020-02-15 | Lost |
| 999 | 1029 | 46% | 2020-02-09 | Won |
| 1051 | 948 | 64% | 2020-01-18 | Won |
| 864 | 924 | 41% | 2019-12-08 | Lost |
| 1113 | 948 | 72% | 2019-12-06 | Won |
| 1037 | 960 | 61% | 2019-11-17 | Won |
| 928 | 927 | 50% | 2019-09-23 | Won |
| 927 | 1072 | 30% | 2019-09-14 | Won |
| 1028 | 989 | 56% | 2019-07-12 | Won |
| 1173 | 973 | 76% | 2019-07-12 | Won |
| 944 | 1157 | 23% | 2019-05-29 | Lost |
| 1201 | 1208 | 49% | 2019-04-21 | Lost |
| 1208 | 1201 | 51% | 2019-04-14 | Won |
| 1039 | 1039 | 50% | 2019-02-24 | Lost |
| 1040 | 930 | 65% | 2019-02-17 | Won |
| 954 | 956 | 50% | 2019-01-22 | Won |
| 926 | 906 | 53% | 2018-12-31 | Lost |
| 1039 | 977 | 59% | 2018-12-25 | Won |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2018-12-19 | Won |
| 1150 | 1020 | 68% | 2018-12-04 | Won |
| 972 | 1037 | 41% | 2018-11-24 | Lost |
| 877 | 961 | 38% | 2018-10-20 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1142 | 41% | 2018-08-16 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1169 | 30% | 2018-07-22 | Won |
| 976 | 948 | 54% | 2018-06-07 | Won |
| 1056 | 996 | 59% | 2018-06-01 | Won |
| 948 | 985 | 45% | 2018-05-04 | Won |
| 1021 | 989 | 55% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 983 | 927 | 58% | 2018-01-20 | Lost |
| 927 | 990 | 41% | 2018-01-08 | Won |
| 1031 | 1031 | 50% | 2018-01-07 | Lost |
| 969 | 969 | 50% | 2018-01-01 | Lost |
| 927 | 1027 | 36% | 2017-12-21 | Won |
| 934 | 1037 | 36% | 2017-11-24 | Lost |
| 877 | 887 | 49% | 2017-11-13 | Lost |
| 983 | 980 | 50% | 2017-10-13 | Won |
| 911 | 1037 | 33% | 2017-09-15 | Won |
| 1037 | 908 | 68% | 2017-09-08 | Lost |
| 908 | 1037 | 32% | 2017-06-22 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1115 | 50% | 2017-05-12 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1097 | 51% | 2017-04-23 | Won |
| 862 | 881 | 47% | 2017-03-12 | Lost |
| 948 | 877 | 60% | 2017-02-26 | Won |
| 1014 | 966 | 57% | 2017-02-22 | Won |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2017-01-29 | Won |
| 1002 | 948 | 58% | 2017-01-29 | Won |
| 899 | 877 | 53% | 2017-01-26 | Lost |
| 1142 | 960 | 74% | 2016-12-20 | Won |
| 893 | 1195 | 15% | 2016-11-12 | Lost |
| 877 | 729 | 70% | 2016-10-12 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1205 | 41% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
| 970 | 970 | 50% | 2016-08-04 | Won |
| 877 | 948 | 40% | 2016-07-24 | Tied |
| 1186 | 1208 | 47% | 2016-06-22 | Lost |
| 927 | 884 | 56% | 2016-05-01 | Won |
| 927 | 960 | 45% | 2016-01-15 | Won |
| 931 | 1033 | 36% | 2015-11-02 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1024 | 69% | 2015-10-25 | Lost |
| 931 | 962 | 46% | 2015-10-12 | Lost |
| 1431 | 1178 | 81% | 2015-09-27 | Lost |
| 952 | 1208 | 19% | 2015-08-26 | Lost |
| 927 | 948 | 47% | 2015-08-04 | Won |
| 1113 | 1127 | 48% | 2015-07-26 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1024 | 50% | 2015-07-21 | Won |
| 1113 | 948 | 72% | 2015-07-03 | Won |
| 926 | 918 | 51% | 2015-06-23 | Lost |
| 926 | 1069 | 31% | 2015-06-01 | Lost |
| 1063 | 926 | 69% | 2015-05-29 | Won |
| 1157 | 1024 | 68% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1078 | 48% | 2015-01-29 | Won |
| 1200 | 1208 | 49% | 2015-01-17 | Lost |
| 1431 | 1147 | 84% | 2014-10-26 | Won |
| 1147 | 1205 | 42% | 2014-09-14 | Lost |
| 926 | 971 | 44% | 2014-07-23 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1096 | 40% | 2014-05-09 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1038 | 46% | 2014-04-01 | Lost |
| 1002 | 948 | 58% | 2014-03-30 | Lost |
| 847 | 845 | 50% | 2014-03-15 | Won |
| 1089 | 1228 | 31% | 2014-03-09 | Lost |
| 1036 | 981 | 58% | 2014-01-31 | Won |
| 981 | 981 | 50% | 2014-01-11 | Lost |
| 983 | 1085 | 36% | 2014-01-11 | Won |
| 1144 | 1125 | 53% | 2013-05-29 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1074 | 45% | 2013-03-02 | Won |
| 936 | 1013 | 39% | 2012-12-29 | Won |
| 1036 | 948 | 62% | 2012-06-10 | Lost |
| 939 | 1022 | 38% | 2012-02-16 | Lost |
| 999 | 1018 | 47% | 2011-12-31 | Lost |
| 999 | 1015 | 48% | 2011-11-30 | Lost |
| 1018 | 999 | 53% | 2011-11-21 | Won |
| 1027 | 1030 | 50% | 2011-11-10 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1047 | 46% | 2011-08-29 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1017 | 54% | 2011-08-27 | Won |
| 1029 | 1023 | 51% | 2011-04-07 | Lost |
| 870 | 960 | 37% | 2010-12-24 | Won |
| 1012 | 1023 | 48% | 2010-12-09 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1007 | 62% | 2010-11-24 | Won |
| 1125 | 1055 | 60% | 2010-09-04 | Won |
| 980 | 983 | 50% | 2010-06-09 | Won |
| 940 | 1006 | 41% | 2010-05-23 | Won |
| 1024 | 1087 | 41% | 2010-01-01 | Lost |
| 1022 | 984 | 55% | 2009-12-14 | Lost |
| 992 | 1012 | 47% | 2009-11-24 | Won |
| 936 | 936 | 50% | 2009-11-12 | Won |
| 1125 | 1137 | 48% | 2009-08-08 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1135 | 63% | 2009-08-07 | Won |
| 1004 | 1045 | 44% | 2009-07-25 | Won |
| 1039 | 1046 | 49% | 2009-05-20 | Won |
| 1028 | 951 | 61% | 2009-05-03 | Lost |
| 951 | 1028 | 39% | 2009-04-28 | Won |
| 1055 | 1216 | 28% | 2009-01-03 | Lost |
| 1017 | 913 | 65% | 2008-12-31 | Won |
| 1004 | 1016 | 48% | 2008-12-18 | Won |
| 1010 | 889 | 67% | 2008-11-30 | Won |
| 987 | 969 | 53% | 2008-10-25 | Won |
| 1056 | 1056 | 50% | 2008-10-01 | Won |
| 1002 | 1004 | 50% | 2008-09-23 | Won |
| 918 | 948 | 46% | 2008-08-14 | Won |
| 948 | 1017 | 40% | 2008-07-08 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2008-02-16 | Won |
| 1019 | 946 | 60% | 2008-02-05 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1016 | 68% | 2008-01-26 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1150 | 32% | 2008-01-26 | Won |
| 1150 | 1088 | 59% | 2008-01-24 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1009 | 54% | 2007-10-25 | Won |
| 913 | 1017 | 35% | 2007-10-20 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1012 | 49% | 2007-07-20 | Lost |
| 948 | 1405 | 7% | 2007-04-28 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1040 | 51% | 2006-11-09 | Won |
| 948 | 1015 | 40% | 2006-09-13 | Lost |
| 984 | 1093 | 35% | 2006-05-19 | Won |
| 832 | 1151 | 14% | 2006-03-29 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1000 | 51% | 2006-03-07 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-02-19 | Lost |
| 943 | 1010 | 40% | 2006-02-07 | Lost |
| 1098 | 978 | 67% | 2005-06-04 | Won |
| 1096 | 1098 | 50% | 2005-04-17 | Won |
| 1037 | 1099 | 41% | 2004-10-28 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1160 | 43% | 2004-09-10 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1086 | 52% | 2004-08-30 | Won |
| 1098 | 978 | 67% | 2004-08-27 | Lost |
| 978 | 889 | 63% | 2004-08-18 | Lost |
Attacking (108 wins) average ELOs: 1022.7 vs 1021.4 has a 50.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).