Gavin Take
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 196 (150 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 99
Defender wins (German): 97
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 959 | 886 | 60% | 2025-01-22 | Won |
| 1292 | 1310 | 47% | 2024-09-21 | Lost |
| 991 | 1001 | 49% | 2024-02-25 | Won |
| 1024 | 1003 | 53% | 2023-12-11 | Won |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2023-10-16 | Won |
| 1030 | 923 | 65% | 2022-11-27 | Won |
| 971 | 1164 | 25% | 2022-11-27 | Won |
| 1008 | 1062 | 42% | 2022-11-05 | Won |
| 871 | 1008 | 31% | 2022-10-15 | Lost |
| 898 | 964 | 41% | 2022-06-22 | Won |
| 898 | 964 | 41% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 898 | 964 | 41% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1163 | 1150 | 52% | 2022-06-02 | Won |
| 1195 | 948 | 81% | 2022-04-07 | Won |
| 1031 | 926 | 65% | 2022-01-15 | Won |
| 961 | 961 | 50% | 2021-05-11 | Lost |
| 1072 | 971 | 64% | 2021-02-25 | Lost |
| 924 | 1076 | 29% | 2021-01-04 | Won |
| 937 | 895 | 56% | 2020-10-02 | Lost |
| 1001 | 1038 | 45% | 2020-08-13 | Lost |
| 941 | 914 | 54% | 2020-07-29 | Won |
| 1061 | 1195 | 32% | 2020-07-16 | Won |
| 1049 | 1052 | 50% | 2020-06-06 | Won |
| 941 | 1053 | 34% | 2020-05-15 | Lost |
| 941 | 1053 | 34% | 2020-05-15 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1070 | 41% | 2020-04-23 | Won |
| 1029 | 788 | 80% | 2020-03-11 | Won |
| 1061 | 1061 | 50% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
| 924 | 864 | 59% | 2020-02-10 | Won |
| 1009 | 982 | 54% | 2019-11-17 | Won |
| 1099 | 1041 | 58% | 2019-09-29 | Lost |
| 999 | 963 | 55% | 2019-09-28 | Won |
| 1214 | 948 | 82% | 2019-09-04 | Lost |
| 1171 | 1113 | 58% | 2019-09-04 | Lost |
| 1142 | 916 | 79% | 2019-06-07 | Won |
| 977 | 1009 | 45% | 2019-06-07 | Lost |
| 989 | 927 | 59% | 2019-03-23 | Lost |
| 948 | 1025 | 39% | 2019-02-06 | Lost |
| 1036 | 948 | 62% | 2019-01-29 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1037 | 66% | 2018-11-12 | Lost |
| 1112 | 970 | 69% | 2018-10-10 | Lost |
| 984 | 984 | 50% | 2018-08-14 | Won |
| 980 | 983 | 50% | 2018-08-10 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1059 | 47% | 2018-07-08 | Lost |
| 926 | 944 | 47% | 2018-06-28 | Lost |
| 934 | 1037 | 36% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 1037 | 946 | 63% | 2018-06-10 | Won |
| 1037 | 911 | 67% | 2018-01-13 | Won |
| 911 | 1037 | 33% | 2018-01-06 | Lost |
| 898 | 1158 | 18% | 2017-12-28 | Lost |
| 1037 | 933 | 65% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 892 | 925 | 45% | 2017-12-17 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1054 | 54% | 2017-11-19 | Won |
| 1073 | 1134 | 41% | 2017-07-12 | Won |
| 1014 | 979 | 55% | 2017-04-14 | Lost |
| 930 | 919 | 52% | 2017-01-03 | Won |
| 1041 | 1183 | 31% | 2016-12-22 | Lost |
| 1195 | 960 | 79% | 2016-06-01 | Won |
| 1065 | 1066 | 50% | 2016-03-06 | Lost |
| 880 | 927 | 43% | 2016-02-01 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2016-01-02 | Lost |
| 1158 | 923 | 79% | 2015-12-29 | Won |
| 1223 | 1166 | 58% | 2015-12-05 | Won |
| 1051 | 1000 | 57% | 2015-11-01 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1114 | 40% | 2015-10-09 | Lost |
| 1113 | 948 | 72% | 2015-09-12 | Won |
| 1113 | 1127 | 48% | 2015-08-27 | Lost |
| 940 | 931 | 51% | 2015-08-18 | Lost |
| 1195 | 830 | 89% | 2015-08-12 | Won |
| 932 | 1112 | 26% | 2015-06-03 | Won |
| 884 | 889 | 49% | 2015-05-15 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1195 | 41% | 2015-01-30 | Lost |
| 1158 | 923 | 79% | 2014-10-27 | Won |
| 990 | 847 | 69% | 2014-10-25 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1146 | 49% | 2014-07-12 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1099 | 55% | 2014-06-16 | Won |
| 1011 | 1228 | 22% | 2014-04-09 | Lost |
| 970 | 847 | 67% | 2014-04-02 | Won |
| 1089 | 1228 | 31% | 2014-03-20 | Lost |
| 984 | 1021 | 45% | 2014-03-18 | Won |
| 1021 | 984 | 55% | 2014-03-18 | Won |
| 1015 | 993 | 53% | 2014-02-27 | Won |
| 998 | 1002 | 49% | 2014-02-04 | Won |
| 1125 | 1094 | 54% | 2013-10-23 | Won |
| 1195 | 985 | 77% | 2013-09-13 | Won |
| 1073 | 1195 | 33% | 2013-07-12 | Lost |
| 1195 | 1073 | 67% | 2013-07-12 | Lost |
| 1096 | 972 | 67% | 2013-06-15 | Lost |
| 900 | 1164 | 18% | 2013-02-25 | Lost |
| 1022 | 976 | 57% | 2013-01-24 | Won |
| 1030 | 1027 | 50% | 2012-12-21 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1017 | 50% | 2012-08-19 | Won |
| 1096 | 1029 | 60% | 2012-06-15 | Lost |
| 1066 | 975 | 63% | 2012-05-19 | Won |
| 924 | 975 | 43% | 2012-04-30 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2012-01-29 | Won |
| 1017 | 1158 | 31% | 2011-10-22 | Lost |
| 1049 | 973 | 61% | 2011-10-16 | Lost |
| 985 | 1023 | 45% | 2011-09-24 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1125 | 37% | 2010-12-20 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1046 | 51% | 2010-12-06 | Won |
| 982 | 938 | 56% | 2010-10-01 | Won |
| 1039 | 963 | 61% | 2010-09-13 | Won |
| 1048 | 1062 | 48% | 2010-09-02 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-09-02 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-09-02 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-09-02 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-09-02 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-09-02 | Won |
| 1012 | 992 | 53% | 2010-04-12 | Lost |
| 992 | 1012 | 47% | 2010-03-29 | Won |
| 980 | 983 | 50% | 2010-03-10 | Won |
| 1086 | 1029 | 58% | 2010-01-12 | Lost |
| 942 | 918 | 53% | 2009-11-11 | Lost |
| 898 | 963 | 41% | 2009-10-18 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1150 | 30% | 2009-10-04 | Lost |
| 948 | 1195 | 19% | 2009-09-01 | Won |
| 918 | 976 | 42% | 2009-08-14 | Lost |
| 951 | 1190 | 20% | 2009-08-02 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1035 | 48% | 2009-06-27 | Won |
| 1030 | 960 | 60% | 2009-06-24 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1132 | 40% | 2009-06-06 | Lost |
| 870 | 1002 | 32% | 2009-04-18 | Won |
| 1002 | 1024 | 47% | 2009-04-18 | Lost |
| 948 | 992 | 44% | 2009-03-25 | Won |
| 993 | 1302 | 14% | 2009-03-10 | Lost |
| 1302 | 1117 | 74% | 2009-03-10 | Lost |
| 1125 | 996 | 68% | 2008-07-16 | Lost |
| 882 | 1013 | 32% | 2008-06-21 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1037 | 62% | 2008-03-09 | Lost |
| 1150 | 913 | 80% | 2008-03-01 | Lost |
| 892 | 1009 | 34% | 2007-11-08 | Lost |
| 1014 | 948 | 59% | 2007-08-21 | Won |
| 886 | 976 | 37% | 2007-04-13 | Lost |
| 945 | 967 | 47% | 2006-10-27 | Won |
| 1070 | 1097 | 46% | 2006-07-20 | Won |
| 862 | 922 | 41% | 2005-09-01 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2005-04-16 | Lost |
| 986 | 891 | 63% | 2004-06-13 | Won |
| 1097 | 1082 | 52% | 2004-04-20 | Lost |
| 1302 | 1285 | 52% | 2004-04-01 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1055 | 45% | 2004-01-15 | Won |
| 1228 | 940 | 84% | 2004-01-10 | Won |
| 1098 | 612 | 94% | 2002-01-26 | Lost |
| 1021 | 829 | 75% | 2001-02-03 | Won |
| 1024 | 1097 | 40% | 1998-05-12 | Lost |
| 988 | 1040 | 43% | 1997-01-31 | Won |
| 999 | 1228 | 21% | 1996-11-15 | Lost |
| 1228 | 985 | 80% | 1995-11-04 | Won |
| 1205 | 1110 | 63% | 1994-12-17 | Won |
Attacking (75 wins) average ELOs: 1031.9 vs 1020.7 has a 51.62% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).